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The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and flexible demand technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, introduces significant uncertainty in power systems, resulting in greater imbalance; defined as the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-08 Timothée Hornek , Sergio Potenciano Menci , Ivan Pavić

To enable an efficient electricity market, a good pricing scheme is of vital importance. Among many practical schemes, customized pricing is commonly believed to be able to best exploit the flexibility in the demand side. However, due to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2019-12-13 Jingshi Cui , Haoxiang Wang , Chenye Wu , Yang Yu

Demand response (DR), as one of the important energy resources in the future's grid, provides the services of peak shaving, enhancing the efficiency of renewable energy utilization with a short response period, and low cost. Various…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-10 Kuan-Cheng Lee , Hong-Tzer Yang , Wenjun Tang

An on-going debate in the energy economics and power market community has raised the question if energy-only power markets are increasingly failing due to growing feed-in shares from subsidized renewable energy sources (RES). The short…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-18 Marcus Hildmann , Andreas Ulbig , Göran Andersson

Accurate probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices is critical for market participants to inform trading decisions. Existing studies rely on specific domain features, such as Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and the last…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-17 Runyao Yu , Ruochen Wu , Yongsheng Han , Jochen L. Cremer

Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-23 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

Precise day-ahead forecasts for electricity prices are crucial to ensure efficient portfolio management, support strategic decision-making for power plant operations, enable efficient battery storage optimization, and facilitate demand…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Btissame El Mahtout , Florian Ziel

Electricity is bought and sold in wholesale markets at prices that fluctuate significantly. Short-term forecasting of electricity prices is an important endeavor because it helps electric utilities control risk and because it influences…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-05-16 Elaheh Fata , Igor Kadota , Ian Schneider

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of forecasting on the interface of electrical engineering, statistics, computer science, and finance, which focuses on predicting prices in wholesale electricity markets for a whole spectrum…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-26 Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski , Jesus Lago , Grzegorz Marcjasz , Rafał Weron

We present a novel recurrent neural network architecture specifically designed for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, aimed at improving short-term decision-making and operational management in energy systems. Our combined forecasting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-29 Souhir Ben Amor , Florian Ziel

This review presents the set of electricity price models proposed in the literature since the opening of power markets. We focus on price models applied to financial pricing and risk management. We classify these models according to their…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-30 Thomas Deschatre , Olivier Féron , Pierre Gruet

Due to the liberalization of markets, the change in the energy mix and the surrounding energy laws, electricity research is a dynamically altering field with steadily changing challenges. One challenge especially for investment decisions is…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-27 Rick Steinert , Florian Ziel

This paper explores the effectiveness of data-driven models to predict voltage excursion events in power systems using simple categorical labels. By treating the prediction as a categorical classification task, the workflow is characterized…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-08-25 Fabrizio De Caro , Adam J. Collin , Alfredo Vaccaro

We propose an innovative data-driven option pricing methodology that relies exclusively on the dataset of historical underlying asset prices. While the dataset is rooted in the objective world, option prices are commonly expressed as…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-23 Min Dai , Hanqing Jin , Xi Yang

In this paper a unifying energy-based approach is provided to the modeling and stability analysis of power systems coupled with market dynamics. We consider a standard model of the power network with a third-order model for the synchronous…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-07-28 Tjerk Stegink , Claudio De Persis , Arjan van der Schaft

The intraday (ID) electricity market has received an increasing attention in the recent EU electricity-market discussions. This is partly because the uncertainty in the underlying power system is growing and the ID market provides an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-14 Saeed Mohammadi , Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh

Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-02 Michał Narajewski , Florian Ziel

The field of electricity price forecasting has seen significant advances in the last years, including the development of new, more accurate forecast models. These models leverage statistical relationships in previously observed data to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Maria Margarida Mascarenhas , Hussain Kazmi

Electricity market prices exhibit extreme volatility, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity, making accurate forecasting a significant challenge. While cutting-edge time series foundation models (TSFMs) effectively capture temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Yunzhong Qiu , Binzhu Li , Hao Wei , Shenglin Weng , Chen Wang , Zhongyi Pei , Mingsheng Long , Jianmin Wang

Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, typically issued as quantile predictions or ensembles of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-22 Simon Hirsch , Florian Ziel