English
Related papers

Related papers: Analogue Forecast System for Daily Precipitation P…

200 papers

Data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) typically relies on landslide conditioning factors (LCFs), whose availability, heterogeneity, and preprocessing-related uncertainties can constrain mapping reliability. Recently, Google…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Yusen Cheng , Qinfeng Zhu , Lei Fan

Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-26 Zachary James , Joseph Guinness , Arthur DeGaetano

Weather prediction is a quintessential problem involving the forecasting of a complex, nonlinear, and chaotic high-dimensional dynamical system. This work introduces an efficient reduced-order modeling (ROM) framework for short-range…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Amirpasha Hedayat , Karthik Duraisamy

High-resolution climatic data are essential to many applications in environmental research. Here we develop a new semi-mechanistic downscaling approach for daily precipitation that incorporates high resolution (30 arc sec) satellite-derived…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-13 Dirk Nikolaus Karger , Adam M. Wilson , Colin Mahony , Niklaus E. Zimmermann , Walter Jetz

The hybrid model combines the physics-based primitive-equations model SPEEDY with a machine learning-based (ML-based) model component, while ERA5 reanalyses provide the presumed true states of the atmosphere. Six-hourly simulated noisy…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-09-29 Dylan Elliott , Troy Arcomano , Istvan Szunyogh , Brian R. Hunt

Time series forecasting is an important challenge with significant applications in areas such as weather prediction, stock market analysis, scientific simulations and industrial process analysis. In this work, we introduce LMS-AutoTSF, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Ibrahim Delibasoglu , Sanjay Chakraborty , Fredrik Heintz

We present an update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecasting model AIFS Single with several key improvements. The model now incorporates physical consistency constraints through bounding layers, an updated training schedule, and an…

Daily streamflow forecasting through data-driven approaches is traditionally performed using a single machine learning algorithm. Existing applications are mostly restricted to examination of few case studies, not allowing accurate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-24 Hristos Tyralis , Georgia Papacharalampous , Andreas Langousis

Rain precipitation prediction is a challenging task as it depends on weather and meteorological features which vary from location to location. As a result, a prediction model that performs well at one location does not perform well at other…

Accurately predicting long-term rainfall is challenging. Global climate indices, such as the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation, are standard input features for machine learning. However, a significant gap persists regarding local-scale indices…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Kiattikun Chobtham

High-resolution precipitation forecasts are crucial for providing accurate weather prediction and supporting effective responses to extreme weather events. Traditional numerical models struggle with stochastic subgrid-scale processes, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Shuangshuang He , Hongli Liang , Yuanting Zhang , Xingyuan Yuan

Taiwan has the highest susceptibility to and fatalities from debris flows worldwide. The existing debris flow warning system in Taiwan, which uses a time-weighted measure of rainfall, leads to alerts when the measure exceeds a predefined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-05 Yi-Lin Tsai , Jeremy Irvin , Suhas Chundi , Andrew Y. Ng , Christopher B. Field , Peter K. Kitanidis

Atmospheric wavefront prediction based on previous wavefront sensor measurements can greatly enhance the performance of adaptive optics systems. We propose an optimal linear approach based on the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF)…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-07-04 Olivier Guyon , Jared Males

Forecasting rainfall in tropical areas is challenging due to complex atmospheric behaviour, elevated humidity levels, and the common presence of convective rain events. In the Indian context, the difficulty is further exacerbated because of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Ajay Devda , Akshay Sunil , Murthy R , B Deepthi

Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only transformer networks to post-process AI-based weather…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-24 Zhanxiang Hua , Ryan Sobash , David John Gagne , Yingkai Sha , Alexandra Anderson-Frey

Reanalysis products such as the ERA5 reanalysis are commonly used as proxies for observed atmospheric conditions. These products are convenient to use due to their global coverage, the large number of available atmospheric variables and the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-03 Silius M. Vandeskog , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Alex Lenkoski

Feature extraction methods help in dimensionality reduction and capture relevant information. In time series forecasting (TSF), features can be used as auxiliary information to achieve better accuracy. Traditionally, features used in TSF…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-16 Alexey Chernikov , Chang Wei Tan , Pablo Montero-Manso , Christoph Bergmeir

Recently, many deep-learning techniques have been applied to various weather-related prediction tasks, including precipitation nowcasting (i.e., predicting precipitation levels and locations in the near future). Most existing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-10-25 Jihoon Ko , Kyuhan Lee , Hyunjin Hwang , Kijung Shin

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather models are now reaching operational-grade performance for some variables, but like traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, they exhibit systematic biases and reliability issues. We test…

One of the guiding principles for designing AI-based weather forecasting systems is to embed physical constraints as inductive priors in the neural network architecture. A popular prior is locality, where the atmospheric data is processed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Guillaume Couairon , Christian Lessig , Anastase Charantonis , Claire Monteleoni