Related papers: Modeling COVID-19 spread in the USA using metapopu…

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

Modelling epidemic events such as COVID-19 cases in both time and space dimensions is an important but challenging task. Building on in-depth review and assessment of two popular graph neural network (GNN)-based regional epidemic…

This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…

This article describes a simple Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model fitting with COVID-19 data for the month of march 2020 in New York (NY) state. The model is a classical SIR, but is non-autonomous; the rate of susceptible people…

Accurate prediction of contagious disease outbreaks is vital for informed decision-making. Our study addresses the gap between machine learning algorithms and their epidemiological applications, noting that methods optimal for benchmark…

The COVID-19 pandemic has had worldwide devastating effects on human lives, highlighting the need for tools to predict its development. Dynamics of such public-health threats can often be efficiently analysed through simple models that help…

Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…

Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) have been successfully applied in node classification tasks of network mining. However, most of these models based on neighborhood aggregation are usually shallow and lack the "graph pooling" mechanism,…

The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although…

Within the complex framework of anti-COVID-19 health management, where the criteria of diagnostic testing, the availability of public-health resources and services, and the applied anti-COVID-19 policies vary between countries, the…

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…

Classical epidemiological models assume homogeneous populations. There have been important extensions to model heterogeneous populations, when the identity of the sub-populations is known, such as age group or geographical location. Here,…

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or…

We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…

The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives, spurring the development of diverse forecasting models. In this context, the true utility of complex spatio-temporal architectures versus simpler temporal baselines remains a subject of…

In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with…

In this study, we address three important challenges related to disease transmissions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, (a) providing an early warning to likely exposed individuals, (b) identifying individuals who are asymptomatic, and…

Detecting the spread of coronavirus will go a long way toward reducing human and economic loss. Unfortunately, existing Epidemiological models used for COVID 19 prediction models are too slow and fail to capture the COVID-19 development in…

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…