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We consider monotonic, multiple regression for a set of contiguous regions (lattice data). The regression functions permissibly vary between regions and exhibit geographical structure. We develop new Bayesian non-parametric methodology…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-16 Christian Rohrbeck , Deborah Costain , Arnoldo Frigessi

We give a new consistent scoring function for structure learning of Bayesian networks. In contrast to traditional approaches to scorebased structure learning, such as BDeu or MDL, the complexity penalty that we propose is data-dependent and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-27 Eliot Brenner , David Sontag

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-31 Andreas Raue , Clemens Kreutz , Fabian Joachim Theis , Jens Timmer

We consider chance-constrained problems with discrete random distribution. We aim for problems with a large number of scenarios. We propose a novel method based on the stochastic gradient descent method which performs updates of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-28 Lukáš Adam , Martin Branda

We propose a general framework using spike-and-slab prior distributions to aid with the development of high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Our framework allows inference with a general quasi-likelihood function. We show that highly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-21 Yves Atchade , Anwesha Bhattacharyya

Predictive modeling uncovers knowledge and insights regarding a hypothesized data generating mechanism (DGM). Results from different studies on a complex DGM, derived from different data sets, and using complicated models and algorithms,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-21 Anna L. Smith , Tian Zheng , Andrew Gelman

Propensity score weighting is widely used to improve the representativeness and correct the selection bias in the voluntary sample. The propensity score is often developed using a model for the sampling probability, which can be subject to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Hengfang Wang , Jae Kwang Kim

The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-08-29 Vesselin I. Dimitrov

Bayesian Inference is a powerful approach to data analysis that is based almost entirely on probability theory. In this approach, probabilities model {\it uncertainty} rather than randomness or variability. This thesis is composed of a…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-09-08 Brendon J. Brewer

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue

Causal discovery from observational data holds great promise, but existing methods rely on strong assumptions about the underlying causal structure, often requiring full observability of all relevant variables. We tackle these challenges by…

Representing probability distributions by the gradient of their density functions has proven effective in modeling a wide range of continuous data modalities. However, this representation is not applicable in discrete domains where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-19 Chenlin Meng , Kristy Choi , Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-28 Cheng Li , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

We propose a framework to perform Bayesian inference using conditional score-based diffusion models to solve a class of inverse problems in mechanics involving the inference of a specimen's spatially varying material properties from noisy…

Structural equation models are commonly used to capture the relationship between sets of observed and unobservable variables. Traditionally these models are fitted using frequentist approaches but recently researchers and practitioners have…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Khue-Dung Dang , Luca Maestrini

Outer measures can be used for statistical inference in place of probability measures to bring flexibility in terms of model specification. The corresponding statistical procedures such as Bayesian inference, estimators or hypothesis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-05 Jeremie Houssineau , Neil K. Chada , Emmanuel Delande

We derive some simple relations that demonstrate how the posterior convergence rate is related to two driving factors: a "penalized divergence" of the prior, which measures the ability of the prior distribution to propose a nonnegligible…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-12 Wenxin Jiang

We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions and Bayes estimators based on observations which are required to be neither independent nor identically distributed. We give general results on the rate of convergence of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Subhashis Ghosal , Aad van der Vaart

We develop a fully Bayesian framework for function-on-scalars regression with many predictors. The functional data response is modeled nonparametrically using unknown basis functions, which produces a flexible and data-adaptive functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-25 Daniel R. Kowal , Daniel C. Bourgeois

In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Yu Luo , David A. Stephens , Daniel J. Graham , Emma J. McCoy
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