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Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pre-training on…

The integration of Fourier transform and deep learning opens new avenues for time series forecasting. We reconsider the Fourier transform from a basis functions perspective. Specifically, the real and imaginary parts of the frequency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Runze Yang , Longbing Cao , Xin You , Kun Fang , Jianxun Li , Jie Yang

Scaling laws motivate the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) that pre-train vast parameters and achieve remarkable zero-shot forecasting performance. Surprisingly, even after fine-tuning, TSFMs cannot consistently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Lifan Zhao , Yanyan Shen , Zhaoyang Liu , Xue Wang , Jiaji Deng

The recent development of foundation models for time series data has generated considerable interest in using such models across a variety of applications. Although foundation models achieve state-of-the-art predictive performance, their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Coen Adler , Yuxin Chang , Felix Draxler , Samar Abdi , Padhraic Smyth

Recent progress in foundation models has enabled strong zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. In this work, we show that such capabilities can also emerge from tabular foundation models. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Shi Bin Hoo , Samuel Müller , David Salinas , Frank Hutter

Foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting face challenges in efficient long-horizon prediction and reproducibility, with existing synthetic-only approaches underperforming on challenging benchmarks. This paper presents…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Vladyslav Moroshan , Julien Siems , Arber Zela , Timur Carstensen , Frank Hutter

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have shown strong results on public benchmarks, prompting comparisons to a "BERT moment" for time series. Their effectiveness in industrial settings, however, remains uncertain. We examine why TSFMs…

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are a class of potentially powerful, general-purpose tools for time series forecasting and related temporal tasks, but their behavior is strongly shaped by subtle inductive biases in their design.…

Time-series forecasting models (TSFM) have evolved from classical statistical methods to sophisticated foundation models, yet understanding why and when these models succeed or fail remains challenging. Despite this known limitation, time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Michael Widener , Kausik Lakkaraju , John Aydin , Biplav Srivastava

The field of time series forecasting has garnered significant attention in recent years, prompting the development of advanced models like TimeSieve, which demonstrates impressive performance. However, an analysis reveals certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Songning Lai , Ninghui Feng , Haochen Sui , Ze Ma , Hao Wang , Zichen Song , Hang Zhao , Yutao Yue

Time series forecasting is a fundamental tool with wide ranging applications, yet recent debates question whether complex nonlinear architectures truly outperform simple linear models. Prior claims of dominance of the linear model often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Md Rakibul Haque , Vishwa Goudar , Shireen Elhabian , Warren Woodrich Pettine

Forecasting agricultural markets remains challenging due to nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks, and sparse data. A long-standing belief holds that simple time-series methods outperform more advanced alternatives. This paper provides the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Le Wang , Boyuan Zhang

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) require diverse, real-world datasets to adapt across varying domains and temporal frequencies. However, current large-scale datasets predominantly focus on low-frequency time series with sampling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Subina Khanal , Seshu Tirupathi , Merim Dzaferagic , Marco Ruffini , Torben Bach Pedersen

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have emerged as a promising approach for zero-shot financial forecasting, demonstrating strong transferability and data efficiency gains. However, their adoption in financial applications is hindered by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Arundeep Chinta , Lucas Vinh Tran , Jay Katukuri

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have become increasingly popular for zero-shot forecasting. However, for a new time series domain not fully covered by the pretraining set, performance can suffer. Therefore, when a practitioner cares…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Thomas L. Lee , Edoardo M. Ponti , Amos Storkey

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Hao Cheng , Qingsong Wen , Yang Liu , Liang Sun

Time series forecasting (TSF) has long been a crucial task in both industry and daily life. Most classical statistical models may have certain limitations when applied to practical scenarios in fields such as energy, healthcare, traffic,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Xiangjie Kong , Zhenghao Chen , Weiyao Liu , Kaili Ning , Lechao Zhang , Syauqie Muhammad Marier , Yichen Liu , Yuhao Chen , Feng Xia

Foundation models (FMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their success has not yet translated to time series forecasting. Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, struggle with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Lars Graf , Thomas Ortner , Stanisław Woźniak , Angeliki Pantazi

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Azul Garza , Cristian Challu , Max Mergenthaler-Canseco

Modern IoT deployments for environmental sensing produce high volume spatiotemporal data to support downstream tasks such as forecasting, typically powered by machine learning models. While existing filtering and strategic deployment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Ragini Gupta , Naman Raina , Bo Chen , Li Chen , Claudiu Danilov , Josh Eckhardt , Keyshla Bernard , Klara Nahrstedt