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Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Bernhard Schölkopf , Lisa Koch , Christian F. Baumgartner , Michael Muehlebach

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, limiting their reliability in critical applications. Conformal Prediction (CP) addresses this by calibrating error rates on held-out data to provide statistically valid confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Nathan Hittesdorf , Marco Salzetta , Lu Cheng

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA), but their inherent unreliability, such as hallucination and overconfidence, limits their application in high-risk domains. To address…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Guang Yang , Xinyang Liu

Recent reasoning large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable improvements in mathematical reasoning capabilities through long Chain-of-Thought. The reasoning tokens of these models enable self-correction within reasoning…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Yu Cui , Bryan Hooi , Yujun Cai , Yiwei Wang

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly rely on multi-turn reasoning and interaction, such as adaptive retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and ReAct-style agents, to answer difficult questions. These methods improve accuracy by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Xiaofan Zhou , Huy Nguyen , Bo Yu , Chenxi Liu , Lu Cheng

This study addresses the critical challenge of hallucination mitigation in Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) for Visual Question Answering (VQA) tasks through a Split Conformal Prediction (SCP) framework. While LVLMs excel in multi-modal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Yuanchang Ye , Weiyan Wen

Chain-of-thought (COT) prompting can help large language models (LLMs) reason toward correct answers, but its efficacy in reasoning toward incorrect answers is unexplored. This process of elimination (PoE), when used with COT, can enhance…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Nishant Balepur , Shramay Palta , Rachel Rudinger

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress, yet their ability to solve complex problems remains limited. In this work, we introduce Cumulative Reasoning (CR), a structured framework that enhances LLM…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Yifan Zhang , Jingqin Yang , Yang Yuan , Andrew Chi-Chih Yao

Query optimization is critical in relational databases. Recently, numerous Learned Query Optimizers (LQOs) have been proposed, demonstrating superior performance over traditional hand-crafted query optimizers after short training periods.…

Databases · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Hanwen Liu , Shashank Giridhara , Ibrahim Sabek

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Han Wang , Chao Ning

Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks. However, their tendency to produce overconfident and factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, poses risks in real world applications. Conformal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Zhexiao Lin , Yuanyuan Li , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Gao , Michael von Gablenz

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam

Large language models (LLMs) have significant potential to improve operational efficiency in operations management. Deploying these models requires specifying a policy that governs response quality, shapes user experience, and influences…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Mingjie Hu , Siyang Gao , Jian-qiang Hu , Enlu Zhou

The reasoning capabilities of large reasoning models (LRMs), such as OpenAI's o1 and DeepSeek-R1, have seen substantial advancements through deep thinking. However, these enhancements come with significant resource demands, underscoring the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Wenrui Cai , Chengyu Wang , Junbing Yan , Jun Huang , Xiangzhong Fang

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Formal verification via theorem proving enables the expressive specification and rigorous proof of software correctness, but it is difficult to scale due to the significant manual effort and expertise required. While Large Language Models…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Minghai Lu , Zhe Zhou , Danning Xie , Songlin Jia , Benjamin Delaware , Tianyi Zhang

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Huanxin Sheng , Xinyi Liu , Hangfeng He , Jieyu Zhao , Jian Kang

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in user-facing applications, building trust and maintaining safety by accurately quantifying a model's confidence in its prediction becomes even more important. However, finding…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Dennis Ulmer , Martin Gubri , Hwaran Lee , Sangdoo Yun , Seong Joon Oh