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Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank among the most costly natural disasters in the United States, and accurate forecasts of track and intensity are critical for emergency response. Intensity guidance has improved steadily but slowly, as processes…
Computers are widely utilized in today's weather forecasting as a powerful tool to leverage an enormous amount of data. Yet, despite the availability of such data, current techniques often fall short of producing reliable detailed storm…
Storm surges cause coastal inundations due to the setup of the water surface resulting from atmospheric pressure, surface winds and breaking waves. The latter is particularly difficult to be accounted for. For instance, it was observed that…
The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current…
Tropical cyclones are important drivers of coastal flooding which have severe negative public safety and economic consequences. Due to the rare occurrence of such events, high spatial and temporal resolution historical storm precipitation…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
Reliability analysis typically relies on deterministic simulators, which yield repeatable outputs for identical inputs. However, many real-world systems display intrinsic randomness, requiring stochastic simulators whose outputs are random…
For economic nonlinear model predictive control and dynamic real-time optimization fast and accurate models are necessary. Consequently, the use of dynamic surrogate models to mimic complex rigorous models is increasingly coming into focus.…
Mediterranean cyclones are extreme meteorological events of which much less is known compared to their tropical, oceanic counterparts. The raising interest in such phenomena is due to their impact on a region increasingly more affected by…
We consider the problem of predicting power outages in an electrical power grid due to hazards produced by convective storms. These storms produce extreme weather phenomena such as intense wind, tornadoes and lightning over a small area. In…
Ice storms are extreme weather events that can have devastating implications for the sustainability of natural ecosystems as well as man made infrastructure. Ice storms are caused by a complex mix of atmospheric conditions and are among the…
Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) have gained widespread interest because of the unprecedented detail with which they resolve the global climate. However, it remains difficult to quantify objective differences in how GSRMs resolve…
Learning the fine-scale details of a coastal ocean simulation from a coarse representation is a challenging task. For real-world applications, high-resolution simulations are necessary to advance understanding of many coastal processes,…
We investigate the influence of time-varying meteoceanic conditions on coastal flooding under the prism of rare events. Focusing on conditions observed over half tidal cycles, we observe that such data fall within the framework of…
A storm is a type of extreme weather. Therefore, forecasting the path of a storm is extremely important for protecting human life and property. However, storm forecasting is very challenging because storm trajectories frequently change. In…
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
Chaotic systems, such as turbulent flows, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. However, their study remains a challenge due to the large range scales, and the strong interaction with other, often not fully understood, physics. As a…
The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone(TC) tracks for risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these…
The Texan electric network in the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by Tropical Cyclones (TC) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here, we introduce a new…