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Biological systems need to react to stimuli over a broad spectrum of timescales. If and how this ability can emerge without external fine-tuning is a puzzle. We consider here this problem in discrete Markovian systems, where we can leverage…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2021-08-11 Faheem Mosam , Diego Vidaurre , Eric De Giuli

Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) offer a powerful stochastic modeling framework that combines deterministic trajectories with random perturbations at random times. Estimating their local characteristics (particularly the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Romain Azaïs , Solune Denis

We give a short overview of recent results on a specific class of Markov process: the Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). We first recall the definition of these processes and give some general results. On more specific cases…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-25 Romain Azaïs , Jean-Baptiste Bardet , Alexandre Genadot , Nathalie Krell , Pierre-André Zitt

The goal of this paper is to analyze distributional Markov Decision Processes as a class of control problems in which the objective is to learn policies that steer the distribution of a cumulative reward toward a prescribed target law,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Nicole Bäuerle , Athanasios Vasileiadis

We study the performance of a stochastic algorithm based on the power method that adaptively learns the large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes, used in physics to model…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-30 Francesco Coghi , Hugo Touchette

Markov decision processes are a ubiquitous formalism for modelling systems with non-deterministic and probabilistic behavior. Verification of these models is subject to the famous state space explosion problem. We alleviate this problem by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Sebastian Junges , Matthijs T. J. Spaan

A hidden Markov process is a well known concept in information theory and is used for a vast range of applications such as speech recognition and error correction. We bridge between two disciplines, experimental physics and advanced…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2015-06-24 Ido Kanter , Aviad Frydman , Asaf Ater

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Tobias Sutter , Arnab Ganguly , Heinz Koeppl

We address the problem of detecting an anomalous process among a large number of processes. At each time t, normal processes are in state zero (normal state), while the abnormal process may be in either state zero (normal state) or state…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-23 Levli Citron , Kobi Cohen , Qing Zhao

Discrete Markov random fields are undirected graphical models that capture complex conditional dependencies between discrete variables. Conducting exact posterior inference in these models is often computationally challenging because…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Giuseppe Arena , Maarten Marsman

The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-13 Cecile Monthus

We address the problem of sequentially selecting and observing processes from a given set to find the anomalies among them. The decision-maker observes a subset of the processes at any given time instant and obtains a noisy binary indicator…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-10 Geethu Joseph , Chen Zhong , M. Cenk Gursoy , Senem Velipasalar , Pramod K. Varshney

Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-11 Guillaume Kon Kam King , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Matteo Ruggiero

We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Daphne Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

We consider the task of learning a dynamical system from high-dimensional time-course data. For instance, we might wish to estimate a gene regulatory network from gene expression data measured at discrete time points. We model the dynamical…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-12 Shizhe Chen , Ali Shojaie , Daniela M. Witten

The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-21 Aleksandr Shchegolev

We present a novel deep learning method for estimating time-dependent parameters in Markov processes through discrete sampling. Departing from conventional machine learning, our approach reframes parameter approximation as an optimization…

Advances in mobile computing technologies have made it possible to monitor and apply data-driven interventions across complex systems in real time. Markov decision processes (MDPs) are the primary model for sequential decision problems with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-20 Longshaokan Wang , Eric B. Laber , Katie Witkiewitz

We introduce and test an algorithm that adaptively estimates large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes in the long-time limit. These functions play an important role for predicting…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-30 Grégoire Ferré , Hugo Touchette