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Currently, machine learning is widely used across various domains, including time series data analysis. However, some machine learning models function as black boxes, making interpretability a critical concern. One approach to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Keita Kinjo

Large language models (LLMs), trained on vast datasets, encode extensive real-world knowledge within their parameters, yet their black-box nature obscures the mechanisms and extent of this encoding. Surrogate modeling, which uses simplified…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Changho Han , Songsoo Kim , Dong Won Kim , Leo Anthony Celi , Jaewoong Kim , SungA Bae , Dukyong Yoon

Surrogate models are used to alleviate the computational burden in engineering tasks, which require the repeated evaluation of computationally demanding models of physical systems, such as the efficient propagation of uncertainties. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-28 Felix Schneider , Iason Papaioannou , Gerhard Müller

This paper presents a software implementation of a general framework for time series interpretation based on abductive reasoning. The software provides a data model and a set of algorithms to make inference to the best explanation of a time…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-18 Tomas Teijeiro , Paulo Felix

Diagnosing an inherited disease often requires identifying the pattern of inheritance in a patient's family. We represent family trees with genetic patterns of inheritance using hypergraphs and latent state space models to provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-06 Edmond Cunningham , Dana Schlegel , Andrew DeOrio

Modern web applications--from real-time content recommendation and dynamic pricing to CDN optimization--increasingly rely on time-series forecasting to deliver personalized experiences to billions of users. Large-scale Transformer-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Pranav Subbaraman , Fang Sun , Yue Yao , Huacong Tang , Xiao Luo , Yizhou Sun

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an…

Taking agent-based models (ABM) closer to the data is an open challenge. This paper explicitly tackles parameter space exploration and calibration of ABMs combining supervised machine-learning and intelligent sampling to build a surrogate…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-07 Francesco Lamperti , Andrea Roventini , Amir Sani

Evolutionary illumination is a recent technique that allows producing many diverse, optimal solutions in a map of manually defined features. To support the large amount of objective function evaluations, surrogate model assistance was…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2017-03-30 Alexander Hagg

Nonlinear machine-learning models are increasingly used to discover causal relationships in time-series data, yet the interpretation of their outputs remains poorly understood. In particular, causal scores produced by regularized neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Valentina Kuskova , Dmitry Zaytsev , Michael Coppedge

Existing deep learning-based surrogate models facilitate efficient data generation, but fall short in uncertainty quantification, efficient parameter space exploration, and reverse prediction. In our work, we introduce SurroFlow, a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Jingyi Shen , Yuhan Duan , Han-Wei Shen

The paper addresses Bayesian inferences in inverse problems with uncertainty quantification involving a computationally expensive forward map associated with solving a partial differential equations. To mitigate the computational cost, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 A. Galaviz , J. A. Christen , A. Capella

The interpretability of machine learning, particularly for deep neural networks, is crucial for decision making in real-world applications. One approach is replacing the un-interpretable machine learning model with a surrogate model, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-22 Keiichi Kisamori , Keisuke Yamazaki , Yuto Komori , Hiroshi Tokieda

High-fidelity numerical simulations of chaotic, high dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems are computationally expensive, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. Most surrogate models for such systems are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Dibyajyoti Chakraborty , Hojin Kim , Romit Maulik

The ubiquity of machine learning based predictive models in modern society naturally leads people to ask how trustworthy those models are? In predictive modeling, it is quite common to induce a trade-off between accuracy and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-05 John Mitros , Brian Mac Namee

The increasing use of stochastic models for describing complex phenomena warrants surrogate models that capture the reference model characteristics at a fraction of the computational cost, foregoing potentially expensive Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Neil Kichler , Sher Afghan , Uwe Naumann

When deploying time series forecasting models based on machine learning to real world settings, one often encounter situations where the data distribution drifts. Such drifts expose the forecasting models to out-of-distribution (OOD) data,…

Time series forecasting presents significant challenges in real-world applications across various domains. Building upon the decomposition of the time series, we enhance the architecture of machine learning models for better multivariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Sanjeev Panta , Xu Yuan , Li Chen , Nian-Feng Tzeng

Temporal networks are essential for modeling and understanding systems whose behavior varies in time, from social interactions to biological systems. Often, however, real-world data are prohibitively expensive to collect in a large scale or…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-08-23 Antonio Longa , Giulia Cencetti , Sune Lehmann , Andrea Passerini , Bruno Lepri

Time series forecasting, which predicts future values from past observations, plays a central role in many domains and has driven the development of highly accurate neural network models. However, the complexity of these models often limits…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Hiroki Tomioka , Genta Yoshimura