Related papers: Quantifying the Risk of Pastoral Conflict in 4 Cen…
In the Sahel region the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution…
When the prices of cereal grains rise, social unrest and conflict become likely. In rural areas, the predation motives of perpetrators can explain the positive relationship between prices and conflict. Predation happens at places and in…
The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…
We examine whether harvest-time transitory shifts in employment and income lead to changes in political violence and social unrest in rice-producing croplands of Southeast Asia. Using monthly data from 2010 to 2023 on over 86,000 incidents…
The prediction of crop yields internationally is a crucial objective in agricultural research. Thus, this study implements 6 regression models (Linear, Tree, Gradient Descent, Gradient Boosting, K Nearest Neighbors, and Random Forest) to…
This paper presents an integrated modelling assessment that estimated the sensitivities of five endogenous factors in commercial rangelands, i.e. number of active farmers, profits, stocking rate, standing herbage biomass, and soil erosion,…
Given the extreme dependence of agriculture on weather conditions, this paper analyses the effect of climatic variations on this economic sector, by considering both a huge dataset and a flexible spatio-temporal model specification. In…
The United Nations has identified improving food security and reducing hunger as essential components of its sustainable development goals. As of 2021, approximately 828 million people worldwide are experiencing hunger and malnutrition,…
Climate change perceptions are fundamental for adaptation and environmental policy support. Although Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, little research has focused on how climate change is perceived in the…
Existing models of political violence often emphasize discrete transitions, when conflicts emerge, escalate, or subside, without considering the longer trajectories of violence that accumulate across time and space. This paper introduces a…
The beginning of the rainy season and the occurrence of dry spells in West Africa is notoriously difficult to predict, however these are the key indicators farmers use to decide when to plant crops, having a major influence on their overall…
Understanding the suitability of agricultural land for applying specific management practices is of great importance for sustainable and resilient agriculture against climate change. Recent developments in the field of causal machine…
Modern armed conflicts have a tendency to cluster together and spread geographically. However, the geography of most conflicts remains under-studied. To fill this gap, this article presents a new indicator that measures two key geographical…
Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a country's history of conflict, or lack thereof, future…
This paper quantifies the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in remote sensing weather data in the analysis of smallholder agricultural productivity. The analysis leverages 17 rounds of nationally-representative,…
The Correlates of War project scrupulously collects information about disputes between the countries over a long historical period together with other data relevant to the character and reasons of international conflicts. Using methods of…
Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this…
Agricultural workers play a vital role in the global economy and food security by cultivating, transporting, and processing food for populations worldwide. Despite their importance, detailed spatial data on the global agricultural workforce…
Climate change is intensifying wildfire risks globally, making reliable forecasting critical for adaptation strategies. While machine learning shows promise for wildfire prediction from Earth observation data, current approaches lack…
Climate change is an impending disaster which is of pressing concern more and more every year. Countless efforts have been made to study the long-term effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity. Studies…