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We study the tail asymptotics of two functionals (the maximum and the sum of the marks) of a generic cluster in two sub-models of the marked Poisson cluster process, namely the renewal Poisson cluster process and the Hawkes process. Under…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Fabien Baeriswyl , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Olivier Wintenberger

A network evolution with predicted tail and extremal indices of PageRank and the Max-Linear Model used as node influence indices in random graphs is considered. The tail index shows a heaviness of the distribution tail. The extremal index…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Natalia Markovich

We establish an edge of the wedge theorem for the sheaf of holomorphic functions with exponential growth at infinity and construct the sheaf of Laplace hyperfunctions in several variables. We also study the fundamental properties of the…

Complex Variables · Mathematics 2015-06-16 Naofumi Honda , Kohei Umeta

Variational inference with {\alpha}-divergences has been widely used in modern probabilistic machine learning. Compared to Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, a major advantage of using {\alpha}-divergences (with positive {\alpha} values) is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-10 Dilin Wang , Hao Liu , Qiang Liu

We study spatial structures of anomalously localized states (ALS) in tail regions at the critical point of the Anderson transition in the two-dimensional symplectic class. In order to examine tail structures of ALS, we apply the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-24 H. Obuse , K. Yakubo

Simultaneous occurrences of extreme events need not imply symmetric or reciprocal tail dependence. However, most existing measures of extremal dependence are inherently symmetric and hence often fail to capture directional influence in tail…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Bikramjit Das , Xiangyu Liu

Flexible spatial models that allow transitions between tail dependence classes have recently appeared in the literature. However, inference for these models is computationally prohibitive, even in moderate dimensions, due to the necessity…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-03 Likun Zhang , Benjamin A. Shaby , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-23 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

We formulate a uniform tail bound for empirical processes indexed by a class of functions, in terms of the individual deviations of the functions rather than the worst-case deviation in the considered class. The tail bound is established by…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Sohail Bahmani

This work investigates the tail behavior of solutions to the affine stochastic fixed-point equation of the form $X\stackrel{d}{=}AX+B$, where $X$ and $(A,B)$ are independent. Focusing on the light-tail regime, following [Burdzy et al.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Julia Le Bihan , Bartosz Kołodziejek

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

Tail asymptotics of the solution $R$ to a fixpoint problem of type $R =_{st} Q + \sum_1^N R_m$ is derived under heavy-tailed conditions allowing both dependence between $Q$ and $N$ and the tails to be of the same order of magnitude. Similar…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-15 Søren Asmussen , Sergey Foss

Abel-Tauberian theorems relate power law behavior of distributions and their transforms. We formulate and prove a multivariate version for non-standard regularly varying measures on $\mathbb{R}_+^p$ and then apply it to prove that the joint…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-26 Sidney Resnick , Gennady Samorodnitsky

In many stochastic models, the observables of interest are naturally encoded in double transforms (e.g., Laplace transforms) that couple spatial and temporal variables. Notably, the double transform often provides the only analytically…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Giampaolo Cristadoro , Gaia Pozzoli

We discuss in this paper a possibility of constructing a whole class of asymptotic distribution-free tests for testing regularly varying tail distributions. The idea is that we treat the tails of distributions as members of a parametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-07 Thuong Nguyen

The stable tail dependence function provides a full characterization of the extremal dependence structures. Unfortunately, the estimation of the stable tail dependence function often suffers from significant bias, whose scale relates to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-19 Nan Zou

We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-08 Pavel Krupskii , Raphael Huser , Marc G. Genton

For certain natural families of topologies, we study continuity and stability of statistical properties of random walks on linear groups over local fields. We extend large deviation results known in the Archimedean case to non-Archimedean…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Omar Hurtado , Sidhanth Raman

Conditions for geometric ergodicity of multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) processes, with the so-called BEKK (Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner) parametrization, are considered. We show for a class of BEKK-ARCH…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-06 Rasmus Pedersen , Olivier Wintenberger

Factor models have large potencial in the modeling of several natural and human phenomena. In this paper we consider a multivariate time series $\mb{Y}_n$, ${n\geq 1}$, rescaled through random factors $\mb{T}_n$, ${n\geq 1}$, extending some…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-18 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira