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Data-driven modeling based on machine learning (ML) is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. Rapid progress has been made with impressive results for some applications. The uptake of ML methods could be a game-changer for the…

Forecasting Heavy Precipitation Events (HPE) in the Mediterranean is crucial but challenging due to the complexity of the processes involved. In this context, Artificial Intelligence methods have recently proven to be competitive with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-01 Killian Pujol , Roberta Baggio , Dominique Lambert , Jean-François Muzy , Jean-Baptiste Filippi , Florian Pantillon

Operational ocean forecasting systems conventionally employ dynamical ocean models driven by atmospheric forcing derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-10 Xiaobing Zhou , Frank Colberg , Debra Hudson , Yonghong Yin , Griffith Young , Christopher Bladwell , Catherine Deburgh-Day

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning (ML) methods are popular for solar forecasting. However, NWP models have multiple possible physical parameterizations, which requires site-specific NWP optimization. This is further…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-10 Nigel Yuan Yun Ng , Harish Gopalan , Venugopalan S. G. Raghavan , Chin Chun Ooi

This study presents a hybrid neural network model for short-term (1-6 hours ahead) surface wind speed forecasting, combining Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with observational data from ground weather stations. It relies on the MeteoNet…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-21 Roberta Baggio , Killian Pujol , Florian Pantillon , Dominique Lambert , Jean-Baptiste Filippi , Jean-François Muzy

Weather forecasting remains a crucial yet challenging domain, where recently developed models based on deep learning (DL) have approached the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these DL models,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-13 Zhanxiang Hua , Yutong He , Chengqian Ma , Alexandra Anderson-Frey

Global data assimilation enables weather forecasting at all scales and provides valuable data for studying the Earth system. However, the computational demands of physics-based algorithms used in operational systems limits the volume and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-17 Thomas J. Vandal , Kate Duffy , Daniel McDuff , Yoni Nachmany , Chris Hartshorn

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-13 Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Amy McGovern , Shreya Agrawal , Jason Hickey

Artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models now often outperform traditional physics-based models on common metrics while requiring orders-of-magnitude less computing resources and time. Open-access AIWP models thus hold…

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that integrate coupled physical equations forward in time are the traditional tools for simulating atmospheric processes and forecasting weather. With recent advancements in deep learning, AI-based…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-12-22 Milton Gomez , Louis Poulain--Auzeau , Alexis Berne , Tom Beucler

With a warming planet, tropical regions are expected to experience the brunt of climate change, with more intense and more volatile rainfall events. Currently, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are known to struggle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-18 Indrajit Kalita , Lucia Vilallonga , Yves Atchade

We present a deep learning model for high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasting over an 8-hour horizon in Europe, overcoming the limitations of radar-only deep learning models with short forecast lead times. Our model…

We present a significantly-improved data-driven global weather forecasting framework using a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to forecast several basic atmospheric variables on a global grid. New developments in this framework…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-10-14 Jonathan A. Weyn , Dale R. Durran , Rich Caruana

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to rapidly evolve, the realm of Earth and atmospheric sciences is increasingly adopting data-driven models, powered by progressive developments in deep learning (DL). Specifically, DL techniques are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-07 Shengchao Chen , Guodong Long , Jing Jiang , Dikai Liu , Chengqi Zhang

Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. The recently released suite of AI-based weather models produces medium-range forecasts within seconds, with a skill…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-11 Monika Feldmann , Tom Beucler , Milton Gomez , Olivia Martius

Data-driven medium-range weather forecasting has attracted much attention in recent years. However, the forecasting accuracy at high resolution is unsatisfactory currently. Pursuing high-resolution and high-quality weather forecasting, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Lei Chen , Fei Du , Yuan Hu , Fan Wang , Zhibin Wang

Data assimilation of observational data into full atmospheric states is essential for weather forecast model initialization. Recently, methods for deep generative data assimilation have been proposed which allow for using new input data…

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-17 Charlie Kirkwood , Theo Economou , Henry Odbert , Nicolas Pugeault

Recently, multiple data-driven models based on machine learning for weather forecasting have emerged. These models are highly competitive in terms of accuracy compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-10 Wencong Cheng , Yan Yan , Jiangjiang Xia , Qi Liu , Chang Qu , Zhigang Wang

Kilometer-scale modeling of global atmosphere dynamics enables fine-grained weather forecasting and decreases the risk of disastrous weather and climate activity. Therefore, building a kilometer-scale global forecast model is a persistent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Tao Han , Song Guo , Fenghua Ling , Kang Chen , Junchao Gong , Jingjia Luo , Junxia Gu , Kan Dai , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai