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We address an optimal control problem for linear stochastic systems with unknown noise distributions and joint chance constraints using conformal prediction. Our approach involves designing a feedback controller to maintain an error system…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-10 Eleftherios E. Vlahakis , Lars Lindemann , Pantelis Sopasakis , Dimos V. Dimarogonas

We propose here an extended attention model for sequence-to-sequence recurrent neural networks (RNNs) designed to capture (pseudo-)periods in time series. This extended attention model can be deployed on top of any RNN and is shown to yield…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-22 Yagmur G. Cinar , Hamid Mirisaee , Parantapa Goswami , Eric Gaussier , Ali Ait-Bachir , Vadim Strijov

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

How do humans and animals perform trial-and-error learning when the space of possibilities is infinite? In a previous study, we used an interval timing production task and discovered an updating strategy in which the agent adjusted the…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-10 Jing Wang , Yousuf El-Jayyousi , Ilker Ozden

Learning-based model predictive control has been widely applied in autonomous racing to improve the closed-loop behaviour of vehicles in a data-driven manner. When environmental conditions change, e.g., due to rain, often only the…

This paper proposes a model predictive controller for discrete-time linear systems with additive, possibly unbounded, stochastic disturbances and subject to chance constraints. By computing a polytopic probabilistic positively invariant set…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-23 Kai Wang , Kiet Tuan Hoang , Sébastien Gros

This paper proposes an adaptive neural-compilation framework to address the problem of efficient program learning. Traditional code optimisation strategies used in compilers are based on applying pre-specified set of transformations that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-05-27 Rudy Bunel , Alban Desmaison , Pushmeet Kohli , Philip H. S. Torr , M. Pawan Kumar

Traditional conformal prediction methods construct prediction sets such that the true label falls within the set with a user-specified coverage level. However, poorly chosen coverage levels can result in uninformative predictions, either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

This paper introduces a framework for uncertainty quantification in regression models defined in metric spaces. Leveraging a newly defined notion of homoscedasticity, we develop a conformal prediction algorithm that offers finite-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-22 Gábor Lugosi , Marcos Matabuena

The world is not static: This causes real-world time series to change over time through external, and potentially disruptive, events such as macroeconomic cycles or the COVID-19 pandemic. We present an adaptive sampling strategy that…

In this work we present a novel recurrent neural network architecture designed to model systems characterized by multiple characteristic timescales in their dynamics. The proposed network is composed by several recurrent groups of neurons…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2017-01-19 Filippo Maria Bianchi , Michael Kampffmeyer , Enrico Maiorino , Robert Jenssen

Neural networks have revolutionized many empirical fields, yet their application to financial time series forecasting remains controversial. In this study, we demonstrate that the conventional practice of estimating models locally in…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-21 Chen Liu , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach , Robert Kohn

Model selection has been proven an effective strategy for improving accuracy in time series forecasting applications. However, when dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from selecting the most appropriate forecasting model,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Mahdi Abolghasemi , Rob J Hyndman , Evangelos Spiliotis , Christoph Bergmeir

Sequence modeling faces challenges in capturing long-range dependencies across diverse tasks. Recent linear and transformer-based forecasters have shown superior performance in time series forecasting. However, they are constrained by their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-25 Bong Gyun Kang , Dongjun Lee , HyunGi Kim , DoHyun Chung , Sungroh Yoon

A centralized model predictive controller (MPC), which is unaware of local uncertainties, for an affine discrete time nonlinear system is presented. The local uncertainties are assumed to be matched, bounded and structured. In order to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Prabhat K. Mishra , Tixian Wang , Mattia Gazzola , Girish Chowdhary

In this paper, we propose a chance constrained stochastic model predictive control scheme for reference tracking of distributed linear time-invariant systems with additive stochastic uncertainty. The chance constraints are reformulated…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Christoph Mark , Steven Liu

In this work we propose a novel approach to utilize convolutional neural networks for time series forecasting. The time direction of the sequential data with spatial dimensions $D=1,2$ is considered democratically as the input of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-13 Matthias Weissenbacher

This paper deals with the tracking control problem for a very simple class of unknown nonlinear systems. In this paper, we presents a design strategy for tracking control of time-varying state constrained nonlinear systems in an adaptive…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-12 Pankaj Kumar Mishra , Nishchal K Verma

This article proposes a Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) strategy to achieve fixed-time convergence of parameter estimation and tracking errors for unknown linear time-invariant systems, without relying on the persistence of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-23 Chayan Kumar Paul , Krishanu Nath , Indra Narayan Kar , Denis Efimov , Rosane Ushirobira

With promising empirical performance across a wide range of applications, synthetic data augmentation appears a viable solution to data scarcity and the demands of increasingly data-intensive models. Its effectiveness lies in expanding the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Zixuan Wu , So Won Jeong , Yating Liu , Yeo Jin Jung , Claire Donnat