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One of the main goals of sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trials (SMART) is to find the most efficacious design embedded dynamic treatment regimes. The analysis method known as multiple comparisons with the best (MCB) allows…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-07 William J. Artman , Ashkan Ertefaie , Kevin G. Lynch , James R. McKay

In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Susan Athey , Stefan Wager

This article develops a continuous-time asymptotic framework for analyzing adaptive experiments -- settings in which data collection and treatment assignment evolve dynamically in response to incoming information. A key challenge in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-26 Karun Adusumilli

To analyse a very large data set containing lengthy variables, we adopt a sequential estimation idea and propose a parallel divide-and-conquer method. We conduct several conventional sequential estimation procedures separately, and properly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-27 Zhanfeng Wang , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

When prospectively developing a new clinical prediction model (CPM), fixed sample size calculations are typically conducted before data collection based on sensible assumptions. But if the assumptions are inaccurate the actual sample size…

We consider adaptive designs for a trial involving N individuals that we follow along T time steps. We allow for the variables of one individual to depend on its past and on the past of other individuals. Our goal is to learn a mean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-20 Aurelien Bibaut , Maya Petersen , Nikos Vlassis , Maria Dimakopoulou , Mark van der Laan

Adaptive sample size re-estimation, early stopping, and trial re-design at interim analyses can reduce expected sample sizes in randomised trials. Cluster randomised trials, in which groups of participants are randomly allocated to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-09 Samuel I. Watson , James Martin

The design of multiple experiments is commonly undertaken via suboptimal strategies, such as batch (open-loop) design that omits feedback or greedy (myopic) design that does not account for future effects. This paper introduces new…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-29 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

Phase I dose-finding trials are increasingly challenging as the relationship between efficacy and toxicity of new compounds (or combination of them) becomes more complex. Despite this, most commonly used methods in practice focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Cong Shen , Zhiyang Wang , Sofia S. Villar , Mihaela van der Schaar

Aims: Combinations of treatments can offer additional benefit over the treatments individually. However, trials of these combinations are lower priority than the development of novel therapies, which can restrict funding, timelines and…

Dynamic treatment regimes are sequential decision rules that adapt treatment according to individual time-varying characteristics and outcomes to achieve optimal effects, with applications in precision medicine, personalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-24 Yuanshan Gao , Yang Bai , Yifan Cui

Motivated by real-world machine learning applications, we consider a statistical classification task in a sequential setting where test samples arrive sequentially. In addition, the generating distributions are unknown and only a set of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-11 Mahdi Haghifam , Vincent Y. F. Tan , Ashish Khisti

In this paper we present a random shuffling scheme to apply with adaptive sorting algorithms. Adaptive sorting algorithms utilize the presortedness present in a given sequence. We have probabilistically increased the amount of presortedness…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-08-31 Md. Enamul Karim , Abdun Naser Mahmood

In this paper, we address the issue of estimating and inferring distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments. The distributional treatment effect provides a more comprehensive understanding of treatment heterogeneity compared…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-15 Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Yuta Hayakawa , Undral Byambadalai

When there are resource constraints, it is important to rank or estimate treatment benefits according to patient characteristics. This facilitates prioritization of assigning different treatments. Most existing literature on individualized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-05 Muxuan Liang , Menggang Yu

In sequential experiments, subjects become available for the study over a period of time, and covariates are often measured at the time of arrival. We consider the setting where the sample size is fixed but covariate values are unknown…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-28 Mia S. Tackney , David C. Woods , Ilya Shpitser

Due to ethical and economical reasons, sequential single-arm trial designs are used for assessing the therapeutic efficacy of new treatments in phase II trials. Simon's 2-stage design and Lan-DeMets' $\alpha$-spending function method with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-31 Tasuku Inao , Isao Yokota

The primary goal of my Ph.D. study is to develop provably efficient and practical algorithms for data-driven sequential decision-making under uncertainty. My work focuses on reinforcement learning (RL), multi-armed bandits, and their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Zhiyong Wang

In many stochastic service systems, decision-makers find themselves making a sequence of decisions, with the number of decisions being unpredictable. To enhance these decisions, it is crucial to uncover the causal impact these decisions…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-18 Juan C. David Gomez , Amy L. Cochran , Gabriel Zayas-Caban

The present paper deals with the problem of allocating patients to two competing treatments in the presence of covariates or prognostic factors in order to achieve a good trade-off among ethical concerns, inferential precision and…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-17 Alessandro Baldi Antognini , Maroussa Zagoraiou