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In this article, we present a novel approach to multivariate probabilistic forecasting. Our approach is based on an extension of single-output quantile regression (QR) to multivariate-targets, called quantile surfaces (QS). QS uses a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-13 Maarten Bieshaar , Jens Schreiber , Stephan Vogt , André Gensler , Bernhard Sick

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…

Applications · Statistics 2013-10-21 Richard A. Davis , Pengfei Zang , Tian Zheng

Spatial dependent data frequently occur in many fields such as spatial econometrics and epidemiology. To deal with the dependence of variables and estimate quantile-specific effects by covariates, spatial quantile autoregressive models…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-16 Ping Dong , Jiawei Hou , Yunquan Song

This paper deals with a linear model of regression on quantiles when the explanatory variable takes values in some functional space and the response is scalar. We propose a spline estimator of the functional coefficient that minimizes a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-14 Hervé Cardot , Christophe Crambes , Pascal Sarda

Quantile regression (QR) is a statistical tool for distribution-free estimation of conditional quantiles of a target variable given explanatory features. QR is limited by the assumption that the target distribution is univariate and defined…

We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Rafal Baranowski , Yining Chen , Piotr Fryzlewicz

Classical spectral methods are subject to two fundamental limitations: they only can account for covariance-related serial dependencies, and they require second-order stationarity. Much attention has been devoted lately to quantile-based…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-19 Stefan Birr , Stanislav Volgushev , Tobias Kley , Holger Dette , Marc Hallin

Mixed spatial autoregressive (SAR) models with numerical covariates have been well studied. However, as non-numerical data, such as functional data and compositional data, receive substantial amounts of attention and are applied to…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-08 Huiwen Wang , Tingting Huang , Shanshan Wang

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-11 Alex Tank , Emily B. Fox , Ali Shojaie

The use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has greatly advanced our capacity for comprehensive Earth monitoring, providing detailed insights into terrestrial surface use and cover regardless of weather conditions, and at any time of day or…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-02-05 Francesco Mauro , Alessandro Sebastianelli , Maria Pia Del Rosso , Paolo Gamba , Silvia Liberata Ullo

Nonlinear dynamic volatility has been observed in many financial time series. The recently proposed quantile periodogram offers an alternative way to examine this phenomena in the frequency domain. The quantile periodogram is constructed…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-26 Ta-Hsin Li

Quantile regression (QR) is a principal regression method for analyzing the impact of covariates on outcomes. The impact is described by the conditional quantile function and its functionals. In this paper we develop the nonparametric…

Linear regression is a data analysis technique, which is categorized as supervised learning. By utilizing known data, we can predict unknown data. Recently, researchers have explored the use of quantum annealing (QA) to perform linear…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-10-14 Asuka Koura , Takashi Imoto , Katsuki Ura , Yuichiro Matsuzaki

We propose a bivariate quantile regression method for the bivariate varying coefficient model through a directional approach. The varying coefficients are approximated by the B-spline basis and an $L_{2}$ type penalty is imposed to achieve…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-10 Linglong Kong , Haoxu Shu , Giseon Heo , Qianchuan Chad He

Regression models that go beyond the mean, alongside coherent risk measures, have been important tools in modern data analysis. This paper introduces the innovative concept of Average Quantile Regression (AQR), which is smooth at the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Rong Jiang , M. C. Jones , Keming Yu , Jiangfeng Wang

While the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model has received extensive attention for modelling complex time series, quantile VAR analysis remains relatively underexplored for high-dimensional time series data. To address this disparity, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Wenyang Liu , Ganggang Xu , Jianqing Fan , Xuening Zhu

This study extends the Bayesian nonparametric instrumental variable regression model to determine the structural effects of covariates on the conditional quantile of the response variable. The error distribution is nonparametrically…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-30 Genya Kobayashi , Kota Ogasawara

Learning vector autoregressive models from multivariate time series is conventionally approached through least squares or maximum likelihood estimation. These methods typically assume a fully connected model which provides no direct insight…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-24 Kimmo Suotsalo , Yingying Xu , Jukka Corander , Johan Pensar

The increasing value of data held in enterprises makes it an attractive target to attackers. The increasing likelihood and impact of a cyber attack have highlighted the importance of effective cyber risk estimation. We propose two methods…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Raisa Dzhamtyrova , Carsten Maple

We propose a prediction procedure for the functional linear quantile regression model by using partial quantile covariance techniques and develop a simple partial quantile regression (SIMPQR) algorithm to efficiently extract partial…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-03 Dengdeng Yu , Linglong Kong , Ivan Mizera