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This paper introduces a novel framework for enhancing Random Forest classifiers by integrating probabilistic feature sampling and hyperparameter tuning via Simulated Annealing. The proposed framework exhibits substantial advancements in…

With the development of artificial intelligence technology, quantitative trading systems represented by reinforcement learning have emerged in the stock trading market. The authors combined the deep Q network in reinforcement learning with…

Random Forests (RF) are among the state-of-the-art in many machine learning applications. With the ongoing integration of ML models into everyday life, the deployment and continuous application of models becomes more and more an important…

Stock trend forecasting, a challenging problem in the financial domain, involves ex-tensive data and related indicators. Relying solely on empirical analysis often yields unsustainable and ineffective results. Machine learning researchers…

Regression is a fundamental prediction task common in data-centric engineering applications that involves learning mappings between continuous variables. In many engineering applications (e.g.\ structural health monitoring), feature-label…

The unpredictability and volatility of the stock market render it challenging to make a substantial profit using any generalised scheme. Many previous studies tried different techniques to build a machine learning model, which can make a…

How effective are the most common trading models? The answer may help investors realize upsides to using each model, act as a segue for investors into more complex financial analysis and machine learning, and to increase financial literacy…

We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…

The research paper empirically investigates several machine learning algorithms to forecast stock prices depending on insider trading information. Insider trading offers special insights into market sentiment, pointing to upcoming changes…

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…

This study presents an autonomous experimental machine learning protocol for high-frequency trading (HFT) stock price forecasting that involves a dual competitive feature importance mechanism and clustering via shallow neural network…

We consider the viability of a modularised mechanistic online machine learning framework to learn signals in low-frequency financial time series data. The framework is proved on daily sampled closing time-series data from JSE equity…

The analysis of high-frequency financial data is often impeded by the presence of noise. This article is motivated by intraday return data in which market microstructure noise appears to be rough, that is, best captured by a continuous-time…

This study considers various semiparametric difference-in-differences models under different assumptions on the relation between the treatment group identifier, time and covariates for cross-sectional and panel data. The variance lower…

Over the past decade, random forest models have become widely used as a robust method for high-dimensional data regression tasks. In part, the popularity of these models arises from the fact that they require little hyperparameter tuning…

Random Forest is a machine learning method that offers many advantages, including the ability to easily measure variable importance. Class balancing technique is a well-known solution to deal with class imbalance problem. However, it has…

We introduce a trade strategy representation theorem for performance measurement and portable alpha in high frequency trading, by embedding a robust trading algorithm that describe portfolio manager market timing behavior, in a canonical…

The Cox proportional hazards model is often used to analyze data from Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT) with time-to-event outcomes. Random survival forest (RSF) is a machine-learning algorithm known for its high predictive performance. We…

We study how much the in-sample performance of trading strategies based on linear predictive models is reduced out-of-sample due to overfitting. More specifically, we compute the in- and out-of-sample means and variances of the…

This paper poses a few fundamental questions regarding the attributes of the volume profile of a Limit Order Books stochastic structure by taking into consideration aspects of intraday and interday statistical features, the impact of…