English
Related papers

Related papers: Rethinking Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs: A Princ…

200 papers

Large language models (LLMs) enable researchers to analyze text at unprecedented scale and minimal cost. Researchers can now revisit old questions and tackle novel ones with rich data. We provide an econometric framework for realizing this…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-08 Jens Ludwig , Sendhil Mullainathan , Ashesh Rambachan

Despite demonstrating impressive capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) still often struggle to accurately express the factual knowledge they possess, especially in cases where the LLMs' knowledge boundaries are ambiguous. To improve…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Boyang Xue , Fei Mi , Qi Zhu , Hongru Wang , Rui Wang , Sheng Wang , Erxin Yu , Xuming Hu , Kam-Fai Wong

A fundamental characteristic of natural language is the high rate at which speakers produce novel expressions. Because of this novelty, a heavy-tail of rare events accounts for a significant amount of the total probability mass of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-25 Benjamin LeBrun , Alessandro Sordoni , Timothy J. O'Donnell

LLMs are highly sensitive to prompt phrasing, yet standard benchmarks typically report performance using a single prompt, raising concerns about the reliability of such evaluations. In this work, we argue for a stochastic method of moments…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Gili Lior , Eliya Habba , Shahar Levy , Avi Caciularu , Gabriel Stanovsky

Both uncertainty estimation and interpretability are important factors for trustworthy machine learning systems. However, there is little work at the intersection of these two areas. We address this gap by proposing a novel method for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-19 Javier Antorán , Umang Bhatt , Tameem Adel , Adrian Weller , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

To leverage the full potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) it is crucial to have some information on their answers' uncertainty. This means that the model has to be able to quantify how certain it is in the correctness of a given…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Mirko Borszukovszki , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

With the increasing capabilities of large language models (LLMs), these high-performance models have achieved state-of-the-art results on a wide range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, the models' performance on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Guanting Dong , Jinxu Zhao , Tingfeng Hui , Daichi Guo , Wenlong Wan , Boqi Feng , Yueyan Qiu , Zhuoma Gongque , Keqing He , Zechen Wang , Weiran Xu

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities, their output quality remains inconsistent across various application scenarios, making it difficult to identify trustworthy responses, especially in complex tasks…

Large language models (LLMs) are becoming useful in many domains due to their impressive abilities that arise from large training datasets and large model sizes. However, research on LLM-based approaches to document inconsistency detection…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Nelvin Tan , Yaowen Zhang , James Asikin Cheung , Fusheng Liu , Yu-Ching Shih , Dong Yang

Reliable confidence estimation is essential for enhancing the trustworthiness of large language models (LLMs), especially in high-stakes scenarios. Despite its importance, accurately estimating confidence in LLM responses remains a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Yukun Li , Sijia Wang , Lifu Huang , Li-Ping Liu

To maintain user trust, large language models (LLMs) should signal low confidence on examples where they are incorrect, instead of misleading the user. The standard approach of estimating confidence is to use the softmax probabilities of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Vaishnavi Shrivastava , Percy Liang , Ananya Kumar

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Sam Bowyer , Laurence Aitchison , Desi R. Ivanova

The popular success of text-based large language models (LLM) has streamlined the attention of the multimodal community to combine other modalities like vision and audio along with text to achieve similar multimodal capabilities. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Debarpan Bhattacharya , Apoorva Kulkarni , Sriram Ganapathy

We present an automatic large language model (LLM) conversion approach that produces uncertainty-aware LLMs capable of estimating uncertainty with every prediction. Our approach is model- and data-agnostic, is computationally-efficient, and…

To address the challenge of quantifying uncertainty in the outputs generated by language models, we propose a novel measure of semantic uncertainty, semantic spectral entropy, that is statistically consistent under mild assumptions. This…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Yi Liu

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Yudi Pawitan , Chris Holmes

The potential of large language models (LLMs) as decision support tools is increasingly being explored in fields such as business, engineering, and medicine, which often face challenging tasks of decision-making under uncertainty. In this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Ollie Liu , Deqing Fu , Dani Yogatama , Willie Neiswanger

We present a practical framework for detecting errors in LLM-generated SQL by estimating uncertainty at the level of individual nodes in the query's abstract syntax tree (AST). Our approach proceeds in two stages. First, we introduce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Hilaf Hasson , Ruocheng Guo

Accurate load forecasting is crucial for maintaining the power balance between generators and consumers,particularly with the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, which introduce significant intermittent volatility. With the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-04 Mingyang Gao , Suyang Zhou , Wei Gu , Zhi Wu , Haiquan Liu , Aihua Zhou

Recent audio-aware large language models (ALLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities across diverse audio understanding and reasoning tasks, but they still frequently produce hallucinated or overly confident outputs. While uncertainty…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-29 Chun-Yi Kuan , Wei-Ping Huang , Hung-yi Lee
‹ Prev 1 8 9 10 Next ›