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Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in randomized controlled trials is an important step toward understanding and acting on trial results. However, HTEs are often small and difficult to identify, and HTE modeling methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-24 Erin Craig , Donald A Redelmeier , Robert J Tibshirani

The aim of this paper is to establish a causal link between the policies implemented by technology companies and the outcomes they yield within intricate temporal and/or spatial dependent experiments. We propose a novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-05 Shikai Luo , Ying Yang , Chengchun Shi , Fang Yao , Jieping Ye , Hongtu Zhu

Causal inference across multiple data sources offers a promising avenue to enhance the generalizability and replicability of scientific findings. However, data integration methods for time-to-event outcomes, common in biomedical research,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Yi Liu , Alexander W. Levis , Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Peter B. Gilbert , Larry Han

Multi-regional clinical trials (MRCTs) play an increasingly crucial role in global pharmaceutical development by expediting data gathering and regulatory approval across diverse patient populations. However, differences in recruitment…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-15 Kaiyuan Hua , Hwanhee Hong , Xiaofei Wang

We propose to analyse the conditional distributional treatment effect (CoDiTE), which, in contrast to the more common conditional average treatment effect (CATE), is designed to encode a treatment's distributional aspects beyond the mean.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-11 Junhyung Park , Uri Shalit , Bernhard Schölkopf , Krikamol Muandet

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Zeqin Yang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

This paper develops methods for uncertainty quantification in causal inference settings with random network interference. We study the large-sample distributional properties of the classical difference-in-means Hajek treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Matias D. Cattaneo , Yihan He , Ruiqi Rae Yu

Causal inference methods for treatment effect estimation usually assume independent units. However, this assumption is often questionable because units may interact, resulting in spillover effects between them. We develop augmented inverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Corinne Emmenegger , Meta-Lina Spohn , Timon Elmer , Peter Bühlmann

Average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) are foundational causal estimands, but they target changes in expected outcomes and can miss treatment-induced changes in the shape of outcome distributions. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Amir Saki , Usef Faghihi

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

There is an increasing interest in estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in randomized and observational studies. However, little research has been conducted to understand heterogeneity in an instrumental variables study. In this work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-20 Michael Johnson , Jiongyi Cao , Hyunseung Kang

Construction of just-in-time adaptive interventions, such as prompts delivered by mobile apps to promote and maintain behavioral change, requires knowledge about time-varying moderated effects to inform when and how we deliver intervention…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Jieru Shi , Zhenke Wu , Walter Dempsey

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal effects may vary among individuals and can even be of opposite signs. When significant effect heterogeneity exists, the population average causal effect might be uninformative for an individual. Due to the fundamental problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-12 Richard Post , Zhuozhao Zhan , Edwin van den Heuvel

Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across space and time in large areal datasets remains challenging, as existing approaches are…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-20 Philipp Hunziker , Julian Wucherpfennig , Aya Kachi , Nils-Christian Bormann

A major focus of causal inference is the estimation of heterogeneous average treatment effects (HTE) - average treatment effects within strata of another variable of interest such as levels of a biomarker, education, or age strata.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-05 Arman Oganisian , Nandita Mitra , Jason Roy

An important problem in econometrics and marketing is to infer the causal impact that a designed market intervention has exerted on an outcome metric over time. This paper proposes to infer causal impact on the basis of a…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-02 Kay H. Brodersen , Fabian Gallusser , Jim Koehler , Nicolas Remy , Steven L. Scott

Undertaking causal inference with observational data is incredibly useful across a wide range of tasks including the development of medical treatments, advertisements and marketing, and policy making. There are two significant challenges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-19 Matthew James Vowels , Necati Cihan Camgoz , Richard Bowden

Estimating long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational and short-term experimental data is a crucial but challenging problem in many real-world scenarios. In existing methods, several ideal assumptions, e.g. latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-12 Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Weilin Chen , Zeqin Yang , Zijian Li , Peng Zhen , Jiecheng Guo

This study investigates the estimation and the statistical inference about Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs), which have garnered attention as a metric representing individualized causal effects. In our data-generating process,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Masahiro Kato