Related papers: Computing the extinction path for epidemic models
In this work, we introduce a quantum-inspired epidemic model to study the dynamics of an infectious disease in a population divided into compartments. By treating the healthy population as a large reservoir, we construct a framework based…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Effective public health decisions require early reliable inference of infectious disease properties. In this paper we assess the ability to infer infectious disease attributes from population-level stochastic epidemic trajectories. In…
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…
Path integral derivations are presented for two recently developed complex trajectory techniques for the propagation of wave packets, Complex WKB and BOMCA. Complex WKB is derived using a standard saddle point approximation of the path…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
The rise of the World Airline Network over the past century has lead to sharp changes in our notions of `distance' and `closeness' - both in terms of trade and travel, but also (less desirably) with respect to the spread of disease. When…
Infectious diseases have severe health and economic consequences for society. It is important in controlling the spread of an emerging infectious disease to be able to both estimate the parameters of the underlying model and identify those…
We introduce and discuss a kinetic framework describing the time evolution of the statistical distributions of a population divided into the compartments of susceptible, infectious, recovered, and resistant in the presence of a microbial…
We model an epidemic where the per-person infectiousness in a network of geographic localities changes with the total number of active cases. This would happen as people adopt more stringent non-pharmaceutical precautions when the…
We develop a theoretical approach that uses physiochemical kinetics modelling to describe cell population dynamics upon progression of viral infection in cell culture, which results in cell apoptosis (programmed cell death) and necrosis…
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the…
We study an epidemic model for a constant population by taking into account four compartments of the individuals characterizing their states of health. Each individual is in one of the compartments susceptible (S); incubated - infected yet…
Economic model predictive control (EMPC) has attracted significant attention in recent years and is recognized as a promising advanced process control method for the next generation smart manufacturing. It can lead to improving economic…
We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission typically neglect within-host dynamics. Yet within-host dynamics - including pathogen replication, host immune responses, and interactions with microbiota - are crucial not only for…
Epidemic modeling is an essential tool to understand the spread of the novel coronavirus and ultimately assist in disease prevention, policymaking, and resource allocation. In this article, we establish a state of the art interface between…
We consider an SIS-type epidemic process that evolves on a known graph. We assume that a fixed curing budget can be allocated at each instant to the nodes of the graph, towards the objective of minimizing the expected extinction time of the…