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Related papers: Cherry-Picking in Time Series Forecasting: How to …

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Time-series forecasting has been an important research domain for so many years. Its applications include ECG predictions, sales forecasting, weather conditions, even COVID-19 spread predictions. These applications have motivated many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Shruti Jadon , Jan Kanty Milczek , Ajit Patankar

Recent state-of-the-art forecasting methods are trained on collections of time series. These methods, often referred to as global models, can capture common patterns in different time series to improve their generalization performance.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Vitor Cerqueira , Nuno Moniz , Ricardo Inácio , Carlos Soares

Our society collects data on people for a wide range of applications, from building a census for policy evaluation to running meaningful clinical trials. To collect data, we typically sample individuals with the goal of accurately…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Victor Borza , Andrew Estornell , Chien-Ju Ho , Bradley Malin , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik

Forecasting can estimate the statement of events according to the historical data and it is considerably important in many disciplines. At present, time series models have been utilized to solve forecasting problems in various domains. In…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-03-10 S. Chen , X. Lan , Y. Hu , Q. Liu , Y. Deng

Time series forecasting has gained lots of attention recently; this is because many real-world phenomena can be modeled as time series. The massive volume of data and recent advancements in the processing power of the computers enable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-01 Manie Tadayon , Yumi Iwashita

Data-driven science is an emerging paradigm where scientific discoveries depend on the execution of computational AI models against rich, discipline-specific datasets. With modern machine learning frameworks, anyone can develop and execute…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-09 Seth Ockerman , John Wu , Christopher Stewart

The great success of deep learning heavily relies on increasingly larger training data, which comes at a price of huge computational and infrastructural costs. This poses crucial questions that, do all training data contribute to model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Shuo Yang , Zeke Xie , Hanyu Peng , Min Xu , Mingming Sun , Ping Li

With the increasing deployment of machine learning models in many socially sensitive tasks, there is a growing demand for reliable and trustworthy predictions. One way to accomplish these requirements is to allow a model to abstain from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Andrea Pugnana , Lorenzo Perini , Jesse Davis , Salvatore Ruggieri

We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Raeid Saqur , Christoph Bergmeir , Blanka Horvath , Daniel Schmidt , Frank Rudzicz , Terry Lyons

Coreset selection methods have shown promise in reducing the training data size while maintaining model performance for data-efficient machine learning. However, as many datasets suffer from biases that cause models to learn spurious…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Amaya Dharmasiri , William Yang , Polina Kirichenko , Lydia Liu , Olga Russakovsky

Time-series forecasting is an essential task with wide real-world applications across domains. While recent advances in deep learning have enabled time-series forecasting models with accurate predictions, there remains considerable debate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Zhiyuan Zhao , Juntong Ni , Shangqing Xu , Haoxin Liu , Wei Jin , B. Aditya Prakash

Dataset replication is a useful tool for assessing whether improvements in test accuracy on a specific benchmark correspond to improvements in models' ability to generalize reliably. In this work, we present unintuitive yet significant ways…

Ensembling is a powerful technique for improving the accuracy of machine learning models, with methods like stacking achieving strong results in tabular tasks. In time series forecasting, however, ensemble methods remain underutilized, with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Nathanael Bosch , Oleksandr Shchur , Nick Erickson , Michael Bohlke-Schneider , Caner Türkmen

Time series modeling techniques based on deep learning have seen many advancements in recent years, especially in data-abundant settings and with the central aim of learning global models that can extract patterns across multiple time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Stephan Rabanser , Tim Januschowski , Valentin Flunkert , David Salinas , Jan Gasthaus

The current landscape in time-series forecasting is dominated by Transformer-based models. Their high parameter count and corresponding demand in computational resources pose a challenge to real-world deployment, especially for commercial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Nicholas Kiefer , Arvid Weyrauch , Muhammed Öz , Achim Streit , Markus Götz , Charlotte Debus

Conventional time-series forecasting methods typically aim to minimize overall prediction error, without accounting for the varying importance of different forecast ranges in downstream applications. We propose a training methodology that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Luca-Andrei Fechete , Mohamed Sana , Fadhel Ayed , Nicola Piovesan , Wenjie Li , Antonio De Domenico , Tareq Si Salem

Materials science data collection can be expensive, making the reuse and long-term utility of datasets critical important for future discovery campaigns. In practice, researchers prioritize a subset of properties due to research interests.…

Natural Language Sentence Matching (NLSM) has gained substantial attention from both academics and the industry, and rich public datasets contribute a lot to this process. However, biased datasets can also hurt the generalization…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Guanhua Zhang , Bing Bai , Jian Liang , Kun Bai , Shiyu Chang , Mo Yu , Conghui Zhu , Tiejun Zhao

Time series forecasting is critical in numerous real-world applications, requiring accurate predictions of future values based on observed patterns. While traditional forecasting techniques work well in in-domain scenarios with ample data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Liran Nochumsohn , Michal Moshkovitz , Orly Avner , Dotan Di Castro , Omri Azencot

In economics and many other forecasting domains, the real world problems are too complex for a single model that assumes a specific data generation process. The forecasting performance of different methods changes depending on the nature of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Li Li , Feng Li , Yanfei Kang