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Related papers: On Calibration in Multi-Distribution Learning

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We consider the problem of constructing probabilistic predictions that lead to accurate decisions when employed by downstream users to inform actions. For a single decision maker, designing an optimal predictor is equivalent to minimizing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Isaac Gibbs , Ryan J. Tibshirani

In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be calibrated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-30 David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Dave Zachariah

Calibration is a classical notion from the forecasting literature which aims to address the question: how should predicted probabilities be interpreted? In a world where we only get to observe (discrete) outcomes, how should we evaluate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Parikshit Gopalan , Lunjia Hu

Given a predictor and a loss function, how well can we predict the loss that the predictor will incur on an input? This is the problem of loss prediction, a key computational task associated with uncertainty estimation for a predictor. In a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Aravind Gollakota , Parikshit Gopalan , Aayush Karan , Charlotte Peale , Udi Wieder

The research area of algorithms with predictions has seen recent success showing how to incorporate machine learning into algorithm design to improve performance when the predictions are correct, while retaining worst-case guarantees when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Michael Dinitz , Sungjin Im , Thomas Lavastida , Benjamin Moseley , Sergei Vassilvitskii

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) represent the state of the art in many tasks. However, due to their overparameterization, their generalization capabilities are in doubt and still a field under study. Consequently, DNN can overfit and assign…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-19 Juan Maroñas , Daniel Ramos , Roberto Paredes

Machine learning (ML) models are typically optimized for their accuracy on a given dataset. However, this predictive criterion rarely captures all desirable properties of a model, in particular how well it matches a domain expert's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-07 Damien Teney , Maxime Peyrard , Ehsan Abbasnejad

Introduced as a notion of algorithmic fairness, multicalibration has proved to be a powerful and versatile concept with implications far beyond its original intent. This stringent notion -- that predictions be well-calibrated across a rich…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Parikshit Gopalan , Michael P. Kim , Mihir Singhal , Shengjia Zhao

To facilitate a wide-spread acceptance of AI systems guiding decision making in real-world applications, trustworthiness of deployed models is key. That is, it is crucial for predictive models to be uncertainty-aware and yield…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-04 Christian Tomani , Florian Buettner

Multi-label learning is a rapidly growing research area that aims to predict multiple labels from a single input data point. In the era of big data, tasks involving multi-label classification (MLC) or ranking present significant and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Adane Nega Tarekegn , Mohib Ullah , Faouzi Alaya Cheikh

Machine learning has achieved tremendous success in a variety of domains in recent years. However, a lot of these success stories have been in places where the training and the testing distributions are extremely similar to each other. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-05 Martin Arjovsky

A major challenge in designing efficient statistical supervised learning algorithms is finding representations that perform well not only on available training samples but also on unseen data. While the study of representation learning has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-06 Milad Sefidgaran , Abdellatif Zaidi , Piotr Krasnowski

The partitioning of data for estimation and calibration critically impacts the performance of propensity score based estimators like inverse probability weighting (IPW) and double/debiased machine learning (DML) frameworks. We extend recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sven Klaassen , Jan Rabenseifner , Jannis Kueck , Philipp Bach

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Charles Marx , Sofian Zalouk , Stefano Ermon

We consider the problem of distributionally robust multimodal machine learning. Existing approaches often rely on merging modalities on the feature level (early fusion) or heuristic uncertainty modeling, which downplays modality-aware…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Peilin Yang , Yu Ma

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Preference alignment methods are increasingly critical for steering large language models (LLMs) to generate outputs consistent with human values. While recent approaches often rely on synthetic data generated by LLMs for scalability and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Mingye Zhu , Yi Liu , Zheren Fu , Yongdong Zhang , Zhendong Mao

Calibration has emerged as a foundational goal in ``trustworthy machine learning'', in part because of its strong decision theoretic semantics. Independent of the underlying distribution, and independent of the decision maker's utility…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-28 Shayan Kiyani , Hamed Hassani , George Pappas , Aaron Roth

In typical machine learning systems, an estimate of the probability of the prediction is used to assess the system's confidence in the prediction. This confidence measure is usually uncalibrated; i.e.\ the system's confidence in the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Shehzaad Dhuliawala , Leonard Adolphs , Rajarshi Das , Mrinmaya Sachan

Label distribution learning (LDL) is a general learning framework, which assigns to an instance a distribution over a set of labels rather than a single label or multiple labels. Current LDL methods have either restricted assumptions on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-18 Wei Shen , Kai Zhao , Yilu Guo , Alan Yuille