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We consider the parameter estimation problem of a probabilistic generative model prescribed using a natural exponential family of distributions. For this problem, the typical maximum likelihood estimator usually overfits under limited…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Viet Anh Nguyen , Xuhui Zhang , Jose Blanchet , Angelos Georghiou

We construct optimal low-rank approximations for the Gaussian posterior distribution in linear Gaussian inverse problems with possibly infinite-dimensional separable Hilbert parameter spaces and finite-dimensional data spaces. We first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-09 Giuseppe Carere , Han Cheng Lie

We consider estimating the predictive density under Kullback-Leibler loss in a high-dimensional Gaussian model. Decision theoretic properties of the within-family prediction error -- the minimal risk among estimates in the class…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-04 Gourab Mukherjee , Iain M. Johnstone

This paper deals with the problem of estimating predictive densities of a matrix-variate normal distribution with known covariance matrix. Our main aim is to establish some Bayesian predictive densities related to matricial shrinkage…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-03 Hisayuki Tsukuma , Tatsuya Kubokawa

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

The prediction of the variance-covariance matrix of the multivariate normal distribution is important in the multivariate analysis. We investigated Bayesian predictive distributions for Wishart distributions under the Kullback-Leibler…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-26 Hidemasa Oda , Fumiyasu Komaki

We consider estimating the predictive density under Kullback-Leibler loss in an $\ell_0$ sparse Gaussian sequence model. Explicit expressions of the first order minimax risk along with its exact constant, asymptotically least favorable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-04 Gourab Mukherjee , Iain M. Johnstone

The maximum likelihood method is the best-known method for estimating the probabilities behind the data. However, the conventional method obtains the probability model closest to the empirical distribution, resulting in overfitting. Then…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-03 Akihisa Ichiki

The problem of predicting independent Poisson random variables is commonly encountered in real-life practice. Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated, and the performance of predictive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Xiao Li , Fumiyasu Komaki

In a variety of applications it is important to extract information from a probability measure $\mu$ on an infinite dimensional space. Examples include the Bayesian approach to inverse problems and possibly conditioned) continuous time…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-02 Frank Pinski , Gideon Simpson , Andrew Stuart , Hendrik Weber

The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-24 Viet Anh Nguyen , Soroosh Shafieezadeh-Abadeh , Man-Chung Yue , Daniel Kuhn , Wolfram Wiesemann

We study the maximum likelihood estimator of density of $n$ independent observations, under the assumption that it is well approximated by a mixture with a large number of components. The main focus is on statistical properties with respect…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-19 Arnak S. Dalalyan , Mehdi Sebbar

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-30 Jian Cao , Myeongjong Kang , Felix Jimenez , Huiyan Sang , Florian Schafer , Matthias Katzfuss

We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…

Computation · Statistics 2014-07-29 Tim Salimans , David A. Knowles

In a regression setup with deterministic design, we study the pure aggregation problem and introduce a natural extension from the Gaussian distribution to distributions in the exponential family. While this extension bears strong…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-06-06 Philippe Rigollet

Accelerated algorithms for maximum likelihood image reconstruction are essential for emerging applications such as 3D tomography, dynamic tomographic imaging, and other high dimensional inverse problems. In this paper, we introduce and…

Computation · Statistics 2012-01-31 Stéphane Chrétien , Alfred O. Hero

We study the problem of model selection type aggregation with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence for various probabilistic models. Rather than considering a convex combination of the initial estimators $f_1, \ldots, f_N$, our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-22 Cristina Butucea , Jean-François Delmas , Anne Dutfoy , Richard Fischer

Frequentist conditions for asymptotic suitability of Bayesian procedures focus on lower bounds for prior mass in Kullback-Leibler neighbourhoods of the data distribution. The goal of this paper is to investigate the flexibility in criteria…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-19 B. J. K. Kleijn , Y. Y. Zhao

We study optimal solutions to an abstract optimization problem for measures, which is a generalization of classical variational problems in information theory and statistical physics. In the classical problems, information and relative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-23 Roman V. Belavkin

We consider learning with possibilistic supervision for multi-class classification. For each training instance, the supervision is a normalized possibility distribution that expresses graded plausibility over the classes. From this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Ismaïl Baaj , Pierre Marquis
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