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Causal inference methods for treatment effect estimation usually assume independent units. However, this assumption is often questionable because units may interact, resulting in spillover effects between them. We develop augmented inverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Corinne Emmenegger , Meta-Lina Spohn , Timon Elmer , Peter Bühlmann

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for full sample analyses. This article extends these methods to estimate ATEs for discrete subgroups…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-16 Peter Z. Schochet

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

While randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating causal treatment effects, their limited sample sizes and restrictive criteria make it difficult to extrapolate to a broader population. Observational data, while…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Stephanie Riley , Ricardo Silva , Matthew Sperrin

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-29 Zach Shahn , Mats Stensrud

In response to the growing need for generating real-world evidence from multi-site collaborative studies, we introduce an efficient collaborative learning approach to evaluate average treatment effect (ECO-ATE) in a multi-site setting under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Sijia Li , Rui Duan

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

Treatment effect heterogeneity plays an important role in many areas of causal inference and within recent years, estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) has received much attention in the statistical community. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

Previous work on causal inference has primarily focused on averages and conditional averages of treatment effects, with significantly less attention on variability and uncertainty in individual treatment responses. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Liyuan Xu , Bijan Mazaheri

We investigate large-sample properties of treatment effect estimators under unknown interference in randomized experiments. The inferential target is a generalization of the average treatment effect estimand that marginalizes over potential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-25 Fredrik Sävje , Peter M. Aronow , Michael G. Hudgens

Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are increasingly estimated from observational data and used to guide policy and individualized treatment decisions. Before such estimates can be trusted in practice, their predictive fitness…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Bosen Cui , Yuhong Yang

Causal inference from observational data often relies on the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, an assumption frequently violated in practice due to unobserved or poorly measured covariates. Proximal causal inference (PCI) offers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-02 Myeonghun Yu , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Covariate-specific treatment effects (CSTEs) represent heterogeneous treatment effects across subpopulations defined by certain selected covariates. In this article, we consider marginal structural models where CSTEs are linearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Peng Wu , Zhiqiang Tan , Wenjie Hu , Xiao-Hua Zhou

To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Yi Zhang , Melody Huang , Kosuke Imai

The machine learning toolbox for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is expanding rapidly, yet many of its algorithms have been evaluated only on a very limited set of semi-synthetic benchmark datasets. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-29 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

In recent years, the field of causal inference from observational data has emerged rapidly. The literature has focused on (conditional) average causal effect estimation. When (remaining) variability of individual causal effects (ICEs) is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-10 Richard Post , Edwin van den Heuvel

From personalised medicine to targeted advertising, it is an inherent task to provide a sequence of decisions with historical covariates and outcome data. This requires understanding of both the dynamics and heterogeneity of treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu

Treatment effect heterogeneity is central to policy evaluation, social science, and precision medicine, where interventions can affect individuals differently. In observational studies, covariates, treatment, and outcomes are often only…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Shuozhi Zuo , Yixin Wang , Fan Yang

This article proposes a meta-learning method for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from a few observational data. The proposed method learns how to estimate CATEs from multiple tasks and uses the knowledge for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-22 Tomoharu Iwata , Yoichi Chikahara

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in biomedical research. For instance, when estimating the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), a doubly robust estimation procedure…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-26 Chi-Shian Dai , Chao Ying , Yang Ning , Jiwei Zhao