Related papers: Prediction-Enhanced Monte Carlo: A Machine Learnin…
Metamodels, or the regression analysis of Monte Carlo simulation results, provide a powerful tool to summarize simulation findings. However, an underutilized approach is the multilevel metamodel (MLMM) that accounts for the dependent data…
We consider the numerical approximation of $\mathbb{P}[G\in \Omega]$ where the $d$-dimensional random variable $G$ cannot be sampled directly, but there is a hierarchy of increasingly accurate approximations $\{G_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$…
Uncertainty analysis in the outcomes of model predictions is a key element in decision-based material design to establish confidence in the models and evaluate the fidelity of models. Uncertainty Propagation (UP) is a technique to determine…
In statistical analysis, Monte Carlo (MC) stands as a classical numerical integration method. When encountering challenging sample problem, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly employed method. However, the MCMC estimator is biased…
RBM-MPC is a computationally efficient variant of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in which the Random Batch Method (RBM) is used to speed up the finite-horizon optimal control problems at each iteration. In this paper, stability and…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been used for a wide variety of stochastic applications. In this paper we consider its use in situations in which input random variables can be replaced by similar approximate random variables…
Variational Monte Carlo (VMC) is a powerful and fast-growing method for optimizing and evolving parameterized many-body wave functions, especially with modern neural-network quantum states. In practice, however, the stochastic estimators…
Multi-sample, importance-weighted variational autoencoders (IWAE) give tighter bounds and more accurate uncertainty estimates than variational autoencoders (VAE) trained with a standard single-sample objective. However, IWAEs scale poorly:…
Manufacturing processes are inherently dynamic and uncertain, with varying parameters and nonlinear behaviors, making robust control essential for maintaining quality and reliability. Traditional control methods often fail under these…
We present general principles for the design and analysis of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators in a wide range of settings. Our estimators posses finite work-normalized variance under mild regularity conditions. We apply our estimators to…
Orthogonal Monte Carlo (OMC) is a very effective sampling algorithm imposing structural geometric conditions (orthogonality) on samples for variance reduction. Due to its simplicity and superior performance as compared to its Quasi Monte…
The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful computational technique for finding the maximum likelihood estimates for parametric models when the data are not fully observed. The EM is best suited for situations where the…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…
We propose and analyze a novel Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) method for weak approximation of stochastic models that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients. The MIMC…
Machine-learning (ML) ans\"atze have greatly expanded the accuracy and reach of variational quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations, in particular when exploring the manifold quantum phenomena exhibited by spin systems. However, the…
Model Predictive Control (MPC) is an optimal control algorithm with strong stability and robustness guarantees. Despite its popularity in robotics and industrial applications, the main challenge in deploying MPC is its high computation…
We describe a regression-based method, generally referred to as the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) method, to speed up exposure calculations of a portfolio. We assume that the portfolio contains several exotic derivatives that are priced…
This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…
We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…
Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…