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We study nonparametric inference for the causal dose-response (or treatment effect) curve when the treatment variable is continuous rather than binary or discrete. We do this by developing doubly robust confidence intervals for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Charles R. Doss

We develop randomization-based tests for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of network interference. Leveraging the exposure mapping framework, we study a broad class of null hypotheses that represent various forms of constant…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-25 Julius Owusu

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

Causal mediation analysis aims at disentangling a treatment effect into an indirect mechanism operating through an intermediate outcome or mediator, as well as the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest. However, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-05 Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to infer treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we study nonparametric inference with an IV under a separable binary treatment choice model, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding under incremental propensity score interventions remains relatively underdeveloped. Incremental interventions define stochastic treatment regimes by multiplying the odds of treatment, offering…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Shuying Shen , Valerio Bacak , Edward H. Kennedy

The instrumental variable method is a prominent approach to recover under certain conditions, valid inference about a treatment causal effect even when unmeasured confounding might be present. In a groundbreaking paper, Imbens and Angrist…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Kyungchul Song , Zhengfei Yu

In semi-logarithmic regressions, treatment coefficients are often interpreted as approximations of the average treatment effect (ATE) in percentage points. This paper highlights the overlooked bias of this approximation under treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-04 Ying Zeng

Randomized clinical trials typically aim to estimate a marginal treatment effect. While covariate adjustment can improve precision, it may change the estimand in nonlinear models due to noncollapsibility, leading to conditional rather than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Leticia Wuethrich , Torsten Hothorn

To answer questions of "causes of effects", the probability of necessity is introduced for assessing whether or not an observed outcome was caused by an earlier treatment. However, the statistical inference for probability of necessity is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-14 Ping Zhang , Ruoyu Wang , Wang Miao

This paper develops a framework for identifying treatment effects when a policy simultaneously alters both the incentive to participate and the outcome of interest -- such as hiring decisions and wages in response to employment subsidies;…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-01 Haotian Deng

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Understanding the effect of a particular treatment or a policy pertains to many areas of interest, ranging from political economics, marketing to healthcare. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric algorithm for detecting the effects of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-24 Davide Viviano , Jelena Bradic

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated to refute the homogeneous treatment effect assumption. Under this assumption, all units making up the population under study experience identical benefit from a given…

Interference occurs when the potential outcomes of a unit depend on the treatment of others. Interference can be highly heterogeneous, where treating certain individuals might have a larger effect on the population's overall outcome. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Samantha G Dean , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Laura Forastiere

Inferring unbiased treatment effects has received widespread attention in the machine learning community. In recent years, our community has proposed numerous solutions in standard settings, high-dimensional treatment settings, and even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Samuel Holt , Jeroen Berrevoets , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

We seek to understand the probability an individual benefits from treatment (PIBT), an inestimable quantity that must be bounded in practice. Given the innate uncertainty in the population-level bounds on PIBT, we seek to better understand…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-04 Gabriel Ruiz , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

In many social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences, treatment effect estimation is a crucial step in understanding the impact of an intervention, policy, or treatment. In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Xinhai Zhang , Xingye Qiao
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