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Real-world time series exhibit temporally structured uncertainty: volatility clusters in turbulent regimes, dissipates in stable periods, and shifts abruptly around structural breaks. Yet many probabilistic forecasting methods estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Yijun Wang , Qiyuan Zhuang , Xiu-Shen Wei

Domain generalization aims to enhance the model robustness against domain shift without accessing the target domain. Since the available source domains for training are limited, recent approaches focus on generating samples of novel…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-20 Seogkyu Jeon , Kibeom Hong , Pilhyeon Lee , Jewook Lee , Hyeran Byun

Domain generalization approaches aim to learn a domain invariant prediction model for unknown target domains from multiple training source domains with different distributions. Significant efforts have recently been committed to broad…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-23 Mohammad Mahfujur Rahman , Clinton Fookes , Sridha Sridharan

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is a challenging task that has been investigated in various domains such as finance investment, health care, traffic, and weather forecasting. In recent years, Linear-based LTSF models showed better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Seonkyu Lim , Jaehyeon Park , Seojin Kim , Hyowon Wi , Haksoo Lim , Jinsung Jeon , Jeongwhan Choi , Noseong Park

We propose an extended framework for marginalized domain adaptation, aimed at addressing unsupervised, supervised and semi-supervised scenarios. We argue that the denoising principle should be extended to explicitly promote domain-invariant…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-02-21 Gabriela Csurka , Boris Chidlovski , Stephane Clinchant , Sophia Michel

With an ever-increasing number of sensors in modern society, spatio-temporal time series forecasting has become a de facto tool to make informed decisions about the future. Most spatio-temporal forecasting models typically comprise distinct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Lars Ødegaard Bentsen , Narada Dilp Warakagoda , Roy Stenbro , Paal Engelstad

In the context of time series forecasting, it is a common practice to evaluate multiple methods and choose one of these methods or an ensemble for producing the best forecasts. However, choosing among different ensembles over multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Himanshi Charotia , Abhishek Garg , Gaurav Dhama , Naman Maheshwari

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved strong zero-shot forecasting performance through large-scale pretraining and retrieval-augmented prediction. However, our empirical analysis reveals a non-trivial limitation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Jinjin Chi , Lei Feng , Lulu Zhang , Yongcheng Jing , Yiming Wang , Ximing Li , Jialie Shen , Leszek Rutkowski , Dacheng Tao

Our goal is to recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured temporal data. Estimating causally-related latent variables from observations is particularly challenging as the latent variables are not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-10 Weiran Yao , Yuewen Sun , Alex Ho , Changyin Sun , Kun Zhang

Due to the non-stationary nature, the distribution of real-world multivariate time series (MTS) changes over time, which is known as distribution drift. Most existing MTS forecasting models greatly suffer from distribution drift and degrade…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Hui He , Qi Zhang , Kun Yi , Kaize Shi , Zhendong Niu , Longbing Cao

As one of the most popular generative models, Variational Autoencoder (VAE) approximates the posterior of latent variables based on amortized variational inference. However, when the decoder network is sufficiently expressive, VAE may lead…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Dazhong Shen , Chuan Qin , Chao Wang , Hengshu Zhu , Enhong Chen , Hui Xiong

Generalizing to out-of-distribution data while being aware of model fairness is a significant and challenging problem in meta-learning. The goal of this problem is to find a set of fairness-aware invariant parameters of classifier that is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Kai Jiang , Chen Zhao , Haoliang Wang , Feng Chen

Time series forecasting is crucial for many fields, such as disaster warning, weather prediction, and energy consumption. The Transformer-based models are considered to have revolutionized the field of sequence modeling. However, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Junlong Tong , Liping Xie , Wankou Yang , Kanjian Zhang

Recognizing the prevalence of domain shift as a common challenge in machine learning, various domain generalization (DG) techniques have been developed to enhance the performance of machine learning systems when dealing with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Yujie Lin , Chen Zhao , Minglai Shao , Baoluo Meng , Xujiang Zhao , Haifeng Chen

Domain generalization aims to apply knowledge gained from multiple labeled source domains to unseen target domains. The main difficulty comes from the dataset bias: training data and test data have different distributions, and the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-24 Ya Li , Mingming Gong , Xinmei Tian , Tongliang Liu , Dacheng Tao

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Kashif Rasul , Abdul-Saboor Sheikh , Ingmar Schuster , Urs Bergmann , Roland Vollgraf

Time series modeling for predictive purpose has been an active research area of machine learning for many years. However, no sufficiently comprehensive and meanwhile substantive survey was offered so far. This survey strives to meet this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Fatoumata Dama , Christine Sinoquet

Domain generalization refers to the problem where we aim to train a model on data from a set of source domains so that the model can generalize to unseen target domains. Naively training a model on the aggregate set of data (pooled from all…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 A. Tuan Nguyen , Toan Tran , Yarin Gal , Atılım Güneş Baydin

Traffic time series forecasting is challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dynamics time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary across time, where, for example, there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-06 Razvan-Gabriel Cirstea , Bin Yang , Chenjuan Guo , Tung Kieu , Shirui Pan

Developing predictive models that perform reliably across diverse patient populations and heterogeneous environments is a core aim of medical research. However, generalization is only possible if the learned model is robust to statistical…

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