Related papers: Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events
A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the physical processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have…
Determining whether published scientific findings can successfully be replicated is a long-standing challenge in the empirical sciences. Existing approaches for replicability assessment typically rely either on human judgment, i.e.,…
Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…
Deep search agents, which aim to answer complex questions requiring reasoning across multiple documents, can significantly speed up the information-seeking process. Collecting human annotations for this application is prohibitively…
Evaluating relevance in large-scale search systems is fundamentally constrained by the governance gap between nuanced, resource-constrained human oversight and the high-throughput requirements of production systems. While traditional…
This papers proposes a generic, high-level methodology for generating forecast combinations that would deliver the optimal linearly combined forecast in terms of the mean-squared forecast error if one had access to two population…
Meteorological forecasting provides reliable prediction about the future weather within a given interval of time. Meteorological forecasting can be viewed as a form of hybrid diagnostic reasoning and can be mapped onto an integrated…
Current machine algorithms for analysis of unstructured data typically show low accuracies due to the need for human-like intelligence. Conversely, though humans are much better than machine algorithms on analyzing unstructured data, they…
Calibration means that forecasts and average realized frequencies are close. We develop the concept of forecast hedging, which consists of choosing the forecasts so as to guarantee that the expected track record can only improve. This…
We study data-driven assistants that provide congestion forecasts to users of shared facilities (roads, cafeterias, etc.), to support coordination between them, and increase efficiency of such collective systems. Key questions are: (1) when…
Artificial intelligence is an emerging topic and will soon be able to perform decisions better than humans. In more complex and creative contexts such as innovation, however, the question remains whether machines are superior to humans.…
It is often reported in forecast combination literature that a simple average of candidate forecasts is more robust than sophisticated combining methods. This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "forecast combination puzzle". Motivated…
The literature is rich with studies, analyses, and examples on parameter estimation for describing the evolution of chaotic dynamical systems based on measurements, even when only partial information is available through observations.…
Autonomous driving systems require the ability to fully understand and predict the surrounding environment to make informed decisions in complex scenarios. Recent advancements in learning-based systems have highlighted the importance of…
The dominant paradigm in machine learning is to assess model performance based on average loss across all samples in some test set. This amounts to averaging performance geospatially across the Earth in weather and climate settings, failing…
Subgrid machine-learning (ML) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated…
Severe haze or low visibility event caused by particulate pollution has become a serious environmental issue in Southeast Asia. A forecasting framework of such events based on deep convolutional neural networks has been developed. The…
With the development of Internet of Things (IoT) and communication technology, the number of next-generation IoT devices has increased explosively, and the delay requirement for content requests is becoming progressively higher.…
Model-based reinforcement learning algorithms are typically more sample efficient than their model-free counterparts, especially in sparse reward problems. Unfortunately, many interesting domains are too complex to specify the complete…
As humans, we are natural any-horizon reasoners, i.e., we can decide whether to iteratively skim long videos or watch short ones in full when necessary for a given task. With this in mind, one would expect video reasoning models to reason…