Related papers: The Front-door Criterion in the Potential Outcome …

The goal of algorithmic recourse is to reverse unfavorable decisions (e.g., from loan denial to approval) under automated decision making by suggesting actionable feature changes (e.g., reduce the number of credit cards). To generate…

Stealthy data poisoning during fine-tuning can backdoor large language models (LLMs), threatening downstream safety. Existing detectors either use classifier-style probability signals--ill-suited to generation--or rely on rewriting, which…

Defeasible conditionals are a form of non-monotonic inference which enable the expression of statements like "if $\phi$ then normally $\psi$". The KLM framework defines a semantics for the propositional case of defeasible conditionals by…

Safety alignment mechanisms in Large Language Models (LLMs) often operate as latent internal states, obscuring the model's inherent capabilities. Building on this observation, we model the safety mechanism as an unobserved confounder from a…

Causal inference relies on two fundamental assumptions: ignorability and positivity. We study causal inference when the true confounder value can be expressed as a function of the observed data; we call this setting estimation with…

Compositional embedding models build a representation (or embedding) for a linguistic structure based on its component word embeddings. We propose a Feature-rich Compositional Embedding Model (FCM) for relation extraction that is…

Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning…

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) is a Bayesian framework for inferring on hidden (latent) neuronal states, based on measurements of brain activity. Since its introduction in 2003 for functional magnetic resonance imaging data, DCM has been…

AI/ML models have rapidly gained prominence as innovations for solving previously unsolved problems and their unintended consequences from amplifying human biases. Advocates for responsible AI/ML have sought ways to draw on the richer…

Latent or continuous chain-of-thought methods replace explicit textual rationales with a number of internal latent steps, but these intermediate computations are difficult to evaluate beyond correlation-based probes. In this paper, we view…

Model interpretation is one of the key aspects of the model evaluation process. The explanation of the relationship between model variables and outputs is relatively easy for statistical models, such as linear regressions, thanks to the…

In the smart era, psychometric tests are becoming increasingly important for personnel selection, career development, and mental health assessment. Forced-choice tests are common in personality assessments because they require participants…

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

In data analysis, unexpected results often prompt researchers to revisit their procedures to identify potential issues. While some researchers may struggle to identify the root causes, experienced researchers can often quickly diagnose…

In this work, we present sequence-driven structural causal models (SD-SCMs), a framework for specifying causal models with user-defined structure and language-model-defined mechanisms. We characterize how an SD-SCM enables sampling from…

We develop our previous works concerning the identification of the collection of significant factors determining some, in general, non-binary random response variable. Such identification is important, e.g., in biological and medical…

Models of opinion dynamics play a major role in various disciplines, including economics, political science, psychology, and social science, as they provide a framework for analysis and intervention. In spite of the numerous mathematical…

We introduce an approach to counterfactual inference based on merging information from multiple datasets. We consider a causal reformulation of the statistical marginal problem: given a collection of marginal structural causal models (SCMs)…

The ``impossibility theorem'' -- which is considered foundational in algorithmic fairness literature -- asserts that there must be trade-offs between common notions of fairness and performance when fitting statistical models, except in two…