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The ability to generalize experimental results from randomized control trials (RCTs) across locations is crucial for informing policy decisions in targeted regions. Such generalization is often hindered by the lack of identifiability due to…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-10 Xinkun Nie , Guido Imbens , Stefan Wager

Estimating an individual treatment effect (ITE) is essential to personalized decision making. However, existing methods for estimating the ITE often rely on unconfoundedness, an assumption that is fundamentally untestable with observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Mingzhang Yin , Claudia Shi , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Modern longitudinal studies collect feature data at many timepoints, often of the same order of sample size. Such studies are typically affected by {dropout} and positivity violations. We tackle these problems by generalizing effects of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-16 Kwangho Kim , Edward H. Kennedy , Ashley I. Naimi

We regularly consider answering counterfactual questions in practice, such as "Would people with diabetes take a turn for the better had they choose another medication?". Observational studies are growing in significance in answering such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

Analysis of longitudinal randomised controlled trials is frequently complicated because patients deviate from the protocol. Where such deviations are relevant for the estimand, we are typically required to make an untestable assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Suzie Cro , James R Carpenter , Michael G Kenward

Combining observational and experimental data for causal inference can improve treatment effect estimation. However, many observational data sets cannot be released due to data privacy considerations, so one researcher may not have access…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-26 Charlotte Z. Mann , Adam C. Sales , Johann A. Gagnon-Bartsch

We consider real-time timely tracking of infection status (e.g., covid-19) of individuals in a population. In this work, a health care provider wants to detect infected people as well as people who have recovered from the disease as quickly…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-15 Melih Bastopcu , Sennur Ulukus

This paper addresses the sample selection model within the context of the gender gap problem, where even random treatment assignment is affected by selection bias. By offering a robust alternative free from distributional or specification…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-04 Xiaolin Sun , Xueyan Zhao , D. S. Poskitt

Measuring treatment efficacy in mixture of subgroups from a randomized clinical trial is a fundamental problem in personalized medicine development, in deciding whether to treat the entire patient population or to target a subgroup. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-03 Ying Ding , Hui-Min Lin , Jason C. Hsu

Hill's specificity criterion has been highly influential in biomedical and epidemiological research. However, it remains controversial and its application often relies on subjective and qualitative analysis without a comprehensive and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Wang Miao

When constructing a model to estimate the causal effect of a treatment, it is necessary to control for other factors which may have confounding effects. Because the ignorability assumption is not testable, however, it is usually unclear…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Spencer Woody , Carlos M. Carvalho , Jared S. Murray

Observational studies provide the only evidence on the effectiveness of interventions when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are impractical due to cost, ethical concerns, or time constraints. While many methodologies aim to draw causal…

Real-World Data (RWD), with its large sample sizes and rich clinical detail, offers a compelling alternative to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for studying treatment effects in diverse and complex patient populations. However, its…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-26 Yifei Xu , Hwiyoung Lee , Zhenyao Ye , Yezhi Pan , Jingsong Zhou , Yun Yang , Chixiang Chen , Shuo Chen

Instrumental variable (IV) analyses are becoming common in health services research and epidemiology. IV analyses can be used both to analyze randomized trials with noncompliance and as a form of natural experiment. In these analyses,…

Predicting which action (treatment) will lead to a better outcome is a central task in decision support systems. To build a prediction model in real situations, learning from biased observational data is a critical issue due to the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-11 Akira Tanimoto , Tomoya Sakai , Takashi Takenouchi , Hisashi Kashima

In a general set-up that allows unmeasured confounding, we show that the conditional average treatment effect on the treated can be identified as one of two possible values. Unlike existing causal inference methods, we do not require an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-29 Zikun Qin , Bikram Karmakar

This paper proposes a new non-parametric bootstrap method to quantify the uncertainty of average treatment effect estimate for the treated from matching estimators. More specifically, it seeks to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-21 Jing Li

While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects in medical research, there is increasing use of and interest in using real-world data for drug development. One such use case is the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-11 Devin Incerti , Michael T Bretscher , Ray Lin , Chris Harbron

One of the most significant challenges in Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation is the statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Cat P. Le , Vahid Tarokh

The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-06 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li
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