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We posit that autoregressive flow models are well-suited to performing a range of causal inference tasks - ranging from causal discovery to making interventional and counterfactual predictions. In particular, we exploit the fact that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-28 Ricardo Pio Monti , Ilyes Khemakhem , Aapo Hyvarinen

Two apparently unrelated fields -- normalizing flows and causality -- have recently received considerable attention in the machine learning community. In this work, we highlight an intrinsic correspondence between a simple family of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-25 Ilyes Khemakhem , Ricardo Pio Monti , Robert Leech , Aapo Hyvärinen

A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

The problem of inferring the direct causal parents of a response variable among a large set of explanatory variables is of high practical importance in many disciplines. Recent work exploits stability of regression coefficients or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Anant Raj , Luigi Gresele , Michel Besserve , Bernhard Schölkopf , Stefan Bauer

Prior work has shown that causal structure can be uniquely identified from observational data when these follow a structural equation model whose error terms have equal variances. We show that this fact is implied by an ordering among…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Wenyu Chen , Mathias Drton , Y. Samuel Wang

Graphical models can represent a multivariate distribution in a convenient and accessible form as a graph. Causal models can be viewed as a special class of graphical models that not only represent the distribution of the observed system…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-29 Christina Heinze-Deml , Marloes H. Maathuis , Nicolai Meinshausen

In this work, we deepen on the use of normalizing flows for causal reasoning. Specifically, we first leverage recent results on non-linear ICA to show that causal models are identifiable from observational data given a causal ordering, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Adrián Javaloy , Pablo Sánchez-Martín , Isabel Valera

We consider the problem of causal discovery (structure learning) from heterogeneous observational data. Most existing methods assume a homogeneous sampling scheme, which leads to misleading conclusions when violated in many applications. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Fangting Zhou , Kejun He , Yang Ni

Learning causal relationships between variables is a well-studied problem in statistics, with many important applications in science. However, modeling real-world systems remain challenging, as most existing algorithms assume that the…

Linear structural causal models (SCMs) -- in which each observed variable is generated by a subset of the other observed variables as well as a subset of the exogenous sources -- are pervasive in causal inference and casual discovery.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Yuqin Yang , Mohamed Nafea , AmirEmad Ghassami , Negar Kiyavash

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Sascha Xu , Sarah Mameche , Jilles Vreeken

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

We propose an approach for learning the causal structure in stochastic dynamical systems with a $1$-step functional dependency in the presence of latent variables. We propose an information-theoretic approach that allows us to recover the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-01-25 Saber Salehkaleybar , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

Nonlinear causal discovery from observational data imposes strict identifiability assumptions on the formulation of structural equations utilized in the data generating process. The evaluation of structure learning methods under assumption…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-17 Georg Velev , Stefan Lessmann

Inferring causal relationships from observed data is an important task, yet it becomes challenging when the data is subject to various external interferences. Most of these interferences are the additional effects of external factors on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Ruichu Cai , Xiaokai Huang , Wei Chen , Zijian Li , Zhifeng Hao

We consider the problem of learning causal models from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models with latent variables. Without considering the effect of latent variables, one usually infers wrong causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-13 Saber Salehkaleybar , AmirEmad Ghassami , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

The causal assumptions, the study design and the data are the elements required for scientific inference in empirical research. The research is adequately communicated only if all of these elements and their relations are described…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-01 Juha Karvanen

Causal models capture cause-effect relations both qualitatively - via the graphical causal structure - and quantitatively - via the model parameters. They offer a powerful framework for analyzing and constructing processes. Here, we…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-02 Ämin Baumeler , Stefan Wolf
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