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Our objective is to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for a time-to-event outcome subject to right-censoring with guaranteed coverage. Inspired by modern conformal inference, our approach avoids the need for a well-specified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Rebecca Farina , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Existing survival analysis techniques heavily rely on strong modelling assumptions and are, therefore, prone to model misspecification errors. In this paper, we develop an inferential method based on ideas from conformal prediction, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Emmanuel J. Candès , Lihua Lei , Zhimei Ren

This paper extends doubly robust censoring unbiased transformations to a broad class of censored data structures under the assumption of coarsening at random and positivity. This includes the classic survival and competing risks setting,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-08 Oliver Lunding Sandqvist

This paper presents a conformal prediction procedure to generate two-sided or one-sided prediction intervals for survival times in the presence of right censoring. Specifically, the method provides two-sided predictive bounds for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Chris Holmes , Ariane Marandon

This paper introduces an assumption-lean method that constructs valid and efficient lower predictive bounds (LPBs) for survival times with censored data. We build on recent work by Cand\`es et al. (2021), whose approach first subsets the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-08 Yu Gui , Rohan Hore , Zhimei Ren , Rina Foygel Barber

The distribution-free method of conformal prediction (Vovk et al, 2005) has gained considerable attention in computer science, machine learning, and statistics. Candes et al. (2023) extended this method to right-censored survival data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Jing Qin , Jin Piao , Jing Ning , Yu Shen

Uncertainty quantification of prediction models through prediction sets is increasingly popular and successful, but most existing methods rely on directly observing the outcome and do not appropriately handle censored outcomes, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Wenwen Si , Hongxiang Qiu

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jaeyoung Shin , Chi Hyun Lee , Sangwook Kang

We propose a method to quantify uncertainty around individual survival distribution estimates using right-censored data, compatible with any survival model. Unlike classical confidence intervals, the survival bands produced by this method…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Matteo Sesia , Vladimir Svetnik

This paper is devoted to robust estimation based on dual divergences estimators for parametric models in the framework of right censored data. We give limit laws of the proposed estimators and examine their asymptotic properties through a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-15 Mohamed Cherfi

It is often of interest to study the association between covariates and the cumulative incidence of a right-censored time-to-event outcome. When time-varying covariates are measured on a fixed discrete time scale, it is desirable to account…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Hongxiang Qiu , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke , Peter B. Gilbert

Survival time prediction from medical images is important for treatment planning, where accurate estimations can improve healthcare quality. One issue affecting the training of survival models is censored data. Most of the current survival…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-27 Renato Hermoza , Gabriel Maicas , Jacinto C. Nascimento , Gustavo Carneiro

In this paper, we predict conditional survival functions through a combined regression strategy. We take weak learners as different random survival trees. We propose to maximize concordance in the right-censored set up to find the optimal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-12 Rahul Goswami , Arabin Kumar Dey

One goal in survival analysis of right-censored data is to estimate the marginal survival function in the presence of dependent censoring. When many auxiliary covariates are sufficient to explain the dependent censoring, estimation based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donglin Zeng

Randomized clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes have traditionally used the log-rank test followed by the Cox proportional hazards (PH) model to estimate the hazard ratio between the treatment groups. These are valid under the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Jiyu Luo , Ronghui Xu

Although the independent censoring assumption is commonly used in survival analysis, it can be violated when the censoring time is related to the survival time, which often happens in many practical applications. To address this issue, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-28 Huazhen Yu , Lixin Zhang

Censoring is the central problem in survival analysis where either the time-to-event (for instance, death), or the time-tocensoring (such as loss of follow-up) is observed for each sample. The majority of existing machine learning-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-22 Weijia Zhang , Chun Kai Ling , Xuanhui Zhang

Randomly censored survival data are frequently encountered in applied sciences including biomedical or reliability applications and clinical trial analyses. Testing the significance of statistical hypotheses is crucial in such analyses to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-08 Abhik Ghosh , Ayanendranath Basu , Leandro Pardo

Discrimination and calibration represent two important properties of survival analysis, with the former assessing the model's ability to accurately rank subjects and the latter evaluating the alignment of predicted outcomes with actual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Shi-ang Qi , Yakun Yu , Russell Greiner

Analysis of random censored life-time data along with some related stochastic covariables is of great importance in many applied sciences like medical research, population studies and planning etc. The parametric estimation technique…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-09 Abhik Ghosh , Ayanendranath Basu
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