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In many applications, there is a need to predict the effect of an intervention on different individuals from data. For example, which customers are persuadable by a product promotion? which patients should be treated with a certain type of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Jiuyong Li , Weijia Zhang , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

As a key component in boosting online user growth, uplift modeling aims to measure individual user responses (e.g., whether to play the game) to various treatments, such as gaming bonuses, thereby enhancing business outcomes. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-26 Yuxiang Wei , Zhaoxin Qiu , Yingjie Li , Yuke Sun , Xiaoling Li

Uplift modeling and Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) estimation aim at predicting the causal effect of an action, such as a medical treatment or a marketing campaign on a specific individual. In this paper, we focus on data from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Krzysztof Rudaś , Szymon Jaroszewicz

Uplift modeling is aimed at estimating the incremental impact of an action on an individual's behavior, which is useful in various application domains such as targeted marketing (advertisement campaigns) and personalized medicine (medical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-21 Ikko Yamane , Florian Yger , Jamal Atif , Masashi Sugiyama

Uplift modeling is a technique used to predict the effect of a treatment (e.g., discounts) on an individual's response. Although several methods have been proposed for multi-valued treatment, they are extended from binary treatment methods.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Zexu Sun , Xu Chen

Uplift modeling comprises a collection of machine learning techniques designed for managers to predict the incremental impact of specific actions on customer outcomes. However, accurately estimating this incremental impact poses significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Junjie Gao , Xiangyu Zheng , DongDong Wang , Zhixiang Huang , Bangqi Zheng , Kai Yang

In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate incremental effects by modeling how customer behavior changes under alternative treatments. However, real-world data often exhibit biases - such as selection bias, spillover effects, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Yuxuan Yang , Dugang Liu , Yiyan Huang

Estimating treatment effects is one of the most challenging and important tasks of data analysts. In many applications, like online marketing and personalized medicine, treatment needs to be allocated to the individuals where it yields a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-19 Björn Bokelmann , Stefan Lessmann

We study uplift estimation for combinatorial treatments. Uplift measures the pure incremental causal effect of an intervention (e.g., sending a coupon or a marketing message) on user behavior, modeled as a conditional individual treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Xinyan Su , Jiacan Gao , Mingyuan Ma , Xiao Xu , Xinrui Wan , Tianqi Gu , Enyun Yu , Jiecheng Guo , Zhiheng Zhang

Uplift models support decision-making in marketing campaign planning. Estimating the causal effect of a marketing treatment, an uplift model facilitates targeting communication to responsive customers and efficient allocation of marketing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-21 Robin M. Gubela , Stefan Lessmann , Szymon Jaroszewicz

There are various applications, where companies need to decide to which individuals they should best allocate treatment. To support such decisions, uplift models are applied to predict treatment effects on an individual level. Based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-11 Björn Bokelmann , Stefan Lessmann

Efficiently allocating treatments with a budget constraint constitutes an important challenge across various domains. In marketing, for example, the use of promotions to target potential customers and boost conversions is limited by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Toon Vanderschueren , Wouter Verbeke , Felipe Moraes , Hugo Manuel Proença

To promote precision medicine, individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) are crucial for optimizing the expected clinical outcome based on patient-specific characteristics. However, existing ITR research has primarily focused on scenarios…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Chang Wang , Lu Wang

The predict-then-optimize (PTO) framework is a standard approach in data-driven decision-making, where a decision-maker first estimates an unknown parameter from historical data and then uses this estimate to solve an optimization problem.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Michael Albert , Max Biggs , Ningyuan Chen , Guan Wang

A primary challenge in ITE estimation is sample selection bias. Traditional approaches utilize treatment regularization techniques such as the Integral Probability Metrics (IPM), re-weighting, and propensity score modeling to mitigate this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Hangtao Zhang , Zhe Li , Kairui Zhang

Uplift modeling has effectively been used in fields such as marketing and customer retention, to target those customers that are most likely to respond due to the campaign or treatment. Uplift models produce uplift scores which are then…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-17 Floris Devriendt , Tias Guns , Wouter Verbeke

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

Uplift modeling has achieved significant success in various fields, particularly in online marketing. It is a method that primarily utilizes machine learning and deep learning to estimate individual treatment effects. This paper we apply…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Xinlin Wang , Mats Brorsson

The Predict-Then-Optimize framework uses machine learning models to predict unknown parameters of an optimization problem from exogenous features before solving. This setting is common to many real-world decision processes, and recently it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 James Kotary , Vincenzo Di Vito , Jacob Cristopher , Pascal Van Hentenryck , Ferdinando Fioretto

Increasing the success rate of a process, i.e. the percentage of cases that end in a positive outcome, is a recurrent process improvement goal. At runtime, there are often certain actions (a.k.a. treatments) that workers may execute to lift…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Zahra Dasht Bozorgi , Marlon Dumas , Marcello La Rosa , Artem Polyvyanyy , Mahmoud Shoush , Irene Teinemaa