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Conformal prediction has received tremendous attention in recent years and has offered new solutions to problems in missing data and causal inference; yet these advances have not leveraged modern semiparametric efficiency theory for more…

Reliable uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. However, existing approaches to estimating uncertainty largely ignore the possibility of…

A significant obstacle in the development of robust machine learning models is covariate shift, a form of distribution shift that occurs when the input distributions of the training and test sets differ while the conditional label…

Covariate shift, a widely used assumption in tackling {\it distributional shift} (when training and test distributions differ), focuses on scenarios where the distribution of the labels conditioned on the feature vector is the same, but the…

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from…

Many researchers have identified distribution shift as a likely contributor to the reproducibility crisis in behavioral and biomedical sciences. The idea is that if treatment effects vary across individual characteristics and experimental…

Many existing approaches for estimating parameters in settings with distributional shifts operate under an invariance assumption. For example, under covariate shift, it is assumed that $p(y|x)$ remains invariant. We refer to such…

We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the…

Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to…

Covariate-shift generalization, a typical case in out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, requires a good performance on the unknown test distribution, which varies from the accessible training distribution in the form of covariate shift.…

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the…

Distribution shifts introduce uncertainty that undermines the robustness and generalization capabilities of machine learning models. While conventional wisdom suggests that learning causal-invariant representations enhances robustness to…

Current methods for covariate-shift adaptation use unlabelled data to compute importance weights or domain-invariant features, while the final model is trained on labelled data only. Here, we consider a particular case of covariate shift…

Varying domains and biased datasets can lead to differences between the training and the target distributions, known as covariate shift. Current approaches for alleviating this often rely on estimating the ratio of training and target…

Covariate shift in the test data is a common practical phenomena that can significantly downgrade both the accuracy and the fairness performance of the model. Ensuring fairness across different sensitive groups under covariate shift is of…

Learning guarantees often rely on assumptions of i.i.d. data, which will likely be violated in practice once predictors are deployed to perform real-world tasks. Domain adaptation approaches thus appeared as a useful framework yielding…

In supervised learning, the estimation of prediction error on unlabeled test data is an important task. Existing methods are usually built on the assumption that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution, which is…

Educational policymakers often lack data on student outcomes where standardized tests were not administered. Machine learning can predict unobserved outcomes in target populations using source population data. However, covariate…

Causal influence measures for machine learnt classifiers shed light on the reasons behind classification, and aid in identifying influential input features and revealing their biases. However, such analyses involve evaluating the classifier…