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Techniques from artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly employed in nuclear theory, however, the uncertainties that arise from the complex parameter manifold encoded by the neural networks are often overlooked.…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2025-10-29 Mengyao Huang , Kyle A. Wendt , Nicolas F. Schunck , Erika M. Holmbeck

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-14 Rebecca Nevin , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović , Brian D. Nord

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Devin M. McAfee , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide principled uncertainty quantification but suffer from substantial computational and memory overhead compared to deterministic networks. While quantization techniques have successfully reduced resource…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Hendrik Borras , Yong Wu , Bernhard Klein , Holger Fröning

Predicting the future frames of a video is a challenging task, in part due to the underlying stochastic real-world phenomena. Prior approaches to solve this task typically estimate a latent prior characterizing this stochasticity, however…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Moitreya Chatterjee , Narendra Ahuja , Anoop Cherian

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-21 Puja Trivedi , Mark Heimann , Rushil Anirudh , Danai Koutra , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan

The calibration of rheological parameters in the modeling of complex flows of non-Newtonian fluids can be a daunting task. In this paper we demonstrate how the framework of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) can be used to improve the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-07-11 Aricia Rinkens , Clemens V. Verhoosel , Nick O. Jaensson

Neural operators (NOs) provide fast, resolution-invariant surrogates for mapping input fields to PDE solution fields, but their predictions can exhibit significant epistemic uncertainty due to finite data, imperfect optimization, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Haoze Song , Zhihao Li , Mengyi Deng , Xin Li , Duyi Pan , Zhilu Lai , Wei Wang

Neural network potentials (NNPs) combine the computational efficiency of classical interatomic potentials with the high accuracy and flexibility of the ab initio methods used to create the training set, but can also result in unphysical…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-01-24 Leonid Kahle , Federico Zipoli

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Countless research works of deep neural networks (DNNs) in the task of credit card fraud detection have focused on improving the accuracy of point predictions and mitigating unwanted biases by building different network architectures or…

We present a "module-based hybrid" Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework for general nonlinear multi-physics simulation. The proposed methodology, introduced in [\hyperlink{ref1}{1}], supports the independent development of each…

Computational Physics · Physics 2014-10-21 Akshay Mittal , Xiao Chen , Charles Tong , Gianluca Iaccarino

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key discipline for computational modeling of complex systems, enhancing reliability of engineering simulations. In crashworthiness, having an accurate assessment of the behavior of the model uncertainty…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Marc Rocas , Alberto García-González , Sergio Zlotnik , Xabier Larráyoz , Pedro Díez

In recent years, operator learning, particularly the DeepONet, has received much attention for efficiently learning complex mappings between input and output functions across diverse fields. However, in practical scenarios with limited and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Andrew Pensoneault , Xueyu Zhu

The widespread use of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) has recently resulted in their application to challenging scientific visualization tasks. While advanced DNNs demonstrate impressive generalization abilities, understanding factors like…

Graphics · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Atul Kumar , Siddharth Garg , Soumya Dutta

This paper introduces a novel and scalable framework for uncertainty estimation and separation with applications in data driven modeling in science and engineering tasks where reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. Leveraging an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Navid Ansari , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) encompass a variety of approaches, with two major types being particularly prominent: information-based, which focus on model confidence expressed as token…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Albina Ilina , Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Preslav Nakov , Artem Shelmanov , Maxim Panov

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

Graphical models have demonstrated their exceptional capabilities across numerous applications. However, their performance, confidence, and trustworthiness are often limited by the inherent randomness in data generation and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Chao Chen , Chenghua Guo , Rui Xu , Jiujiu Chen , Xiangwen Liao , Xi Zhang , Sihong Xie , Hui Xiong , Philip Yu

Uncertainty quantification in a neural network is one of the most discussed topics for safety-critical applications. Though Neural Networks (NNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance for many applications, they still provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Mehedi Hasan , Abbas Khosravi , Ibrahim Hossain , Ashikur Rahman , Saeid Nahavandi