Related papers: Markov-type state models to describe non-Markovian…
This work introduces a non-intrusive model reduction approach for learning reduced models from partially observed state trajectories of high-dimensional dynamical systems. The proposed approach compensates for the loss of information due to…
We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a…
Nature, as far as we know, evolves continuously through space and time. Yet the ubiquitous hidden Markov model (HMM)--originally developed for discrete time and space analysis in natural language processing--remains a central tool in…
Molecule- and particle-based simulations provide the tools to test, in microscopic detail, the validity of classical nucleation theory. In this endeavour, determining nucleation mechanisms and rates for phase separation requires an…
Transition path sampling is a rare-event method that estimates state-to-state timecorrelation functions in many-body systems from samples of short trajectories. In this framework, it is proposed to bias the importance function using the…
A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…
Finite order Markov models are theoretically well-studied models for dependent discrete data. Despite their generality, application in empirical work when the order is large is rare. Practitioners avoid using higher order Markov models…
Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…
Non-Markovian dynamics are ubiquitous across physics, biology, and engineering. Yet our understanding of non-Markovian processes significantly lags that of simpler Markovian processes, due largely to a lack of tractable models. In this…
Metastability is a physical phenomenon ubiquitous in first order phase transitions. A fruitful mathematical way to approach this phenomenon is the study of rare transitions Markov chains. For Metropolis chains associated with Statistical…
An overview of advanced dynamical algorithms capable of spanning the widely disparate time scales that govern the decay of metastable phases in discrete spin models is presented. The algorithms discussed include constrained transfer-matrix,…
Transition Path Theory (TPT) provides a rigorous statistical characterization of the ensemble of trajectories connecting directly, i.e., without detours, two disconnected (sets of) states in a Markov chain, a stochastic process that…
We consider a simple but important class of metastable discrete time Markov chains, which we call perturbed Markov chains. Basically, we assume that the transition matrices depend on a parameter $\varepsilon$, and converge as $\varepsilon$.…
We address the problem of identifying the dynamical law governing the evolution of a population of indistinguishable particles, when only aggregate distributions at successive times are observed. Assuming a Markovian evolution on a discrete…
We study a class of multi-stage stochastic programs, which incorporate modeling features from Markov decision processes (MDPs). This class includes structured MDPs with continuous action and state spaces. We extend policy graphs to include…
We consider an interacting particle Markov process for Darwinian evolution in an asexual population with non-constant population size, involving a linear birth rate, a density-dependent logistic death rate, and a probability $\mu$ of…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic functions of finite Markov chains, or, put in other words, state space models with finite state space. In this paper, we examine subspace estimation methods for HMMs whose output lies a finite…
Treatment switching is a common occurrence in the management of Multiple Sclerosis (MS), where patients transition across various disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) due to heterogeneous treatment responses, differences in disease…
We distinguish a mechanical representation of the world in terms of point masses with positions and momenta and the chemical representation of the world in terms of populations of different individuals, each with intrinsic stochasticity,…
Countable state Markov shifts are a natural generalization of the well-known subshifts of finite type. They are the subject of current research both for their own sake and as models for smooth dynamical systems. In this paper, we…