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Although financial models violate ergodicity in general, observing the ergodic behavior in the markets is not rare. Policymakers and market participants control the market behavior in critical and emergency states, which leads to some…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-27 Kiarash Firouzi , Mohammad Jelodari Mamaghani

Due to the increasing popularity of futures trading among financial market participants, the risk management of these instruments is crucial. In this paper, we introduce a model for estimating the ideal time for leaving a trading position…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-30 Kiarash Firouzi , Mohammad Jelodari Mamaghani

Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theories of decision-making reveal how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To…

We introduce a stochastic price model where, together with a random component, a moving average of logarithmic prices contributes to the price formation. Our model is tested against financial datasets, showing an extremely good agreement…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-02 R. Baviera , M. Pasquini , J. Raboanary , M. Serva

The determinants of the velocity of money have been examined based on life-cycle hypothesis. The velocity of money can be expressed by reciprocal of the average value of holding time which is defined as interval between participating…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Yougui Wang , Hanqing Qiu

The stochastic processes underlying the growth and stability of biological and psychological systems reveal themselves when far from equilibrium. Far from equilibrium, nonergodicity reigns. Nonergodicity implies that the average outcome for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-03 Madhur Mangalam , Damian G. Kelty-Stephen

We study ergodic properties of a family of traffic maps acting in the space of bi-infinite sequences of real numbers. The corresponding dynamics mimics the motion of vehicles in a simple traffic flow, which explains the name. Using…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Michael Blank

Risk-sensitive control balances performance with resilience to unlikely events in uncertain systems. This paper introduces ergodic-risk criteria, which capture long-term cumulative risks through probabilistic limit theorems. By ensuring the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Shahriar Talebi , Na Li

We study the evolution of distributions under the action of an ergodic dynamical system, which may be stochastic in nature. By employing tools from Koopman and transfer operator theory one can evolve any initial distribution of the state…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-22 Prune Inzerilli , Vladimir Kostic , Karim Lounici , Pietro Novelli , Massimiliano Pontil

In this paper, we investigate the economic mobility in some money transfer models which have been applied into the research on wealth distribution. We demonstrate the mobility by recording the time series of agents' ranks and observing…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Ning Ding , Ning Xi , Yougui Wang

This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 L. Gazola , C. Fernandes , A. Pizzinga , R. Riera

We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-06 Jozef Barunik , Lukas Vacha

The purpose of this paper is to study the time average behavior of Markov chains with transition probabilities being kernels of completely continuous operators, and therefore to provide a sufficient condition for a class of Markov chains…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-16 Shizhou Xu

We propose a stochastic map model of economic dynamics. In the last decade, an array of observations in economics has been investigated in the econophysics literature, a major example being the universal features of inequality in terms of…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-27 Anindya S. Chakrabarti

In this paper we study the dynamics and ergodic theory of certain economic models which are implicitly defined. We consider 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional overlapping generations models, a cash-in-advance model, heterogeneous markets and a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-11-16 Eugen Mihailescu

Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and financial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as "long".…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-10 Natasha Kang , Vadim Marmer

This paper considers an ergodic version of the bounded velocity follower problem, assuming that the decision maker lacks knowledge of the underlying system parameters and must learn them while simultaneously controlling. We propose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-07 Stefan Ankirchner , Sören Christensen , Jan Kallsen , Philip Le Borne , Stefan Perko

We present a new method of analysis of measure-preserving dynamical systems, based on frequency analysis and ergodic theory, which extends our earlier work [1]. Our method employs the novel concept of harmonic time average [2], and is…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2014-07-29 Zoran Levnajić , Igor Mezić

We study the ergodic behaviour of a discrete-time process $X$ which is a Markov chain in a stationary random environment. The laws of $X_t$ are shown to converge to a limiting law in (weighted) total variation distance as $t\to\infty$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-29 Balazs Gerencser , Miklos Rasonyi

Ergodicity economics is a new branch of economic theory that notes the conceptual difference between time averages and expectation values, which coincide only for ergodic observables. It postulates that individual agents maximise the time…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-02 Ole Peters , Alexander Adamou
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