Related papers: New stochastic comparisons based on tail values at…

The metalog distributions represent a convenient way to approach many practical applications. Their distinctive feature is simple closed-form expressions for quantile functions. This paper contributes to further development of the metalog…

A theoretical expression is derived for the mean squared error of a nonparametric estimator of the tail dependence coefficient, depending on a threshold that defines which rank delimits the tails of a distribution. We propose a new method…

The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…

We present improved algorithms with worst-case regret guarantees for the stochastic linear bandit problem. The widely used "optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle reduces a stochastic bandit problem to the construction of a…

We introduce and study the main properties of a class of convex risk measures that refine Expected Shortfall by simultaneously controlling the expected losses associated with different portions of the tail distribution. The corresponding…

We show how the problem of estimating conditional Kendall's tau can be rewritten as a classification task. Conditional Kendall's tau is a conditional dependence parameter that is a characteristic of a given pair of random variables. The…

Understanding the shape of a distribution of data is of interest to people in a great variety of fields, as it may affect the types of algorithms used for that data. We study one such problem in the framework of distribution property…

We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We start from the Merton model which default events and losses are derived from the asset values at maturity. To estimate the time development of the asset values, the…

This work studies the tail exponents for the height function of the stationary stochastic six vertex model in the moderate deviations regime. For the upper tail of the height function we find upper and lower bounds of matching order, with a…

This paper studies properties of functions having monotone tails. We extend Theorem 1 of Dhaene et al. (2002a) and show how the tail quantiles of a random variable transformed with a monotone tail function can be expressed as the…

We analyze systems of agents sharing light-tailed risky claims issued by different financial objects. Assuming exponentially distributed claims, we obtain that both agents' and system's losses follow generalized exponential mixture…

We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk, 2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail risk assessment methods (such as extreme value theory). More importantly,…

We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…

We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…

This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a…

The concept of intermediate tail dependence is useful if one wants to quantify the degree of positive dependence in the tails when there is no strong evidence of presence of the usual tail dependence. We first review existing studies on…

The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner…

Scenario generation is the construction of a discrete random vector to represent parameters of uncertain values in a stochastic program. Most approaches to scenario generation are distribution-driven, that is, they attempt to construct a…

We give explicit bounds for the tail probabilities for sums of independent geometric or exponential variables, possibly with different parameters.

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…