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Reliable uncertainty quantification is a first step towards building explainable, transparent, and accountable artificial intelligent systems. Recent progress in Bayesian deep learning has made such quantification realizable. In this paper,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Yijun Xiao , William Yang Wang

The prevailing assumption of an exponential decay in large language model (LLM) reliability with sequence length, predicated on independent per-token error probabilities, posits an inherent limitation for long autoregressive outputs. Our…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Mikhail L. Arbuzov , Sisong Bei , Ziwei Dong , Dmitri Kalaev , Alexey A. Shvets

It is increasingly important to evaluate how text generation systems based on large language models (LLMs) behave, such as their tendency to produce harmful output or their sensitivity to adversarial inputs. Such evaluations often rely on a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Rachel Longjohn , Shang Wu , Saatvik Kher , Catarina Belém , Padhraic Smyth

This paper considers the challenges Large Language Models (LLMs) face when reasoning over text that includes information involving uncertainty explicitly quantified via probability values. This type of reasoning is relevant to a variety of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Aliakbar Nafar , Kristen Brent Venable , Parisa Kordjamshidi

Understanding why a large language model (LLM) is uncertain about the response is important for their reliable deployment. Current approaches, which either provide a single uncertainty score or rely on the classical aleatoric-epistemic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Aditya Taparia , Ransalu Senanayake , Kowshik Thopalli , Vivek Narayanaswamy

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

Safe deployment of large language models (LLMs) may benefit from a reliable method for assessing their generated content to determine when to abstain or to selectively generate. While likelihood-based metrics such as perplexity are widely…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Jie Ren , Yao Zhao , Tu Vu , Peter J. Liu , Balaji Lakshminarayanan

In this work, we explore uncertainty estimation as a proxy for correctness in LLM-generated code. To this end, we adapt two state-of-the-art techniques from natural language generation -- one based on entropy and another on mutual…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Arindam Sharma , Cristina David

The rise of large language models (LLMs) and their tight integration into our daily life make it essential to dedicate efforts towards their trustworthiness. Uncertainty quantification for LLMs can establish more human trust into their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Daniel Yang , Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Makoto Yamada

The generative nature of Large Language Models (LLMs) is reflected in the conditional probabilities they compute to sample each response token given the previous tokens. These probabilities encode the distributional structure that the model…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Shilpika Shilpika , Carlo Graziani , Bethany Lusch , Venkatram Vishwanath , Michael E. Papka

While past works have shown how uncertainty quantification can be applied to large language model (LLM) outputs, the question of whether resulting uncertainty guarantees still hold within sub-groupings of data remains open. In our work,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Terrance Liu , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Decoding strategies for generative large language models (LLMs) are a critical but often underexplored aspect of text generation tasks. Guided by specific hyperparameters, these strategies aim to transform the raw probability distributions…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Esteban Garces Arias , Meimingwei Li , Christian Heumann , Matthias Aßenmacher

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated a powerful ability for text generation. However, achieving optimal results with a given prompt or instruction can be challenging, especially for billion-sized models. Additionally, undesired…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Lifu Tu , Semih Yavuz , Jin Qu , Jiacheng Xu , Rui Meng , Caiming Xiong , Yingbo Zhou

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Bo Kai , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Tom A. Lamb , Jialin Yu , Philip H. S. Torr , Chang Xu

The proliferation of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) from various institutions has highlighted the urgent need for comprehensive evaluation methods. However, current evaluation platforms, such as the widely recognized HuggingFace…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Fanghua Ye , Mingming Yang , Jianhui Pang , Longyue Wang , Derek F. Wong , Emine Yilmaz , Shuming Shi , Zhaopeng Tu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being explored across a range of reasoning tasks. However, LLMs sometimes struggle with reasoning tasks under uncertainty that are relatively easy for humans, such as planning actions in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Ziwei Deng , Mian Deng , Chenjing Liang , Zeming Gao , Chennan Ma , Chenxing Lin , Haipeng Zhang , Songzhu Mei , Siqi Shen , Cheng Wang

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Roi Cohen , Omri Fahn , Gerard de Melo

Despite their growing capabilities, language models still frequently reproduce content from their training data, generate repetitive text, and favor common grammatical patterns and vocabulary. A possible cause is the decoding strategy: the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-15 Giorgio Franceschelli , Mirco Musolesi

Temporary syntactic ambiguities arise when the beginning of a sentence is compatible with multiple syntactic analyses. We inspect to which extent neural language models (LMs) exhibit uncertainty over such analyses when processing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Laura Aina , Tal Linzen

Despite the massive advancements in large language models (LLMs), they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Yongjin Yang , Haneul Yoo , Hwaran Lee