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Rolling forecasts have been almost overlooked in the renewable energy storage literature. In this paper, we provide a new approach for handling uncertainty not just in the accuracy of a forecast, but in the evolution of forecasts over time.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-04-18 Saeed Ghadimi , Warren B. Powell

Stochastic dynamical systems are fundamental in state estimation, system identification and control. System models are often provided in continuous time, while a major part of the applied theory is developed for discrete-time systems.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-02-07 Niklas Wahlström , Patrix Axelsson , Fredrik Gustafsson

In this work, we present a globalized stochastic semismooth Newton method for solving stochastic optimization problems involving smooth nonconvex and nonsmooth convex terms in the objective function. We assume that only noisy gradient and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-03-12 Andre Milzarek , Xiantao Xiao , Shicong Cen , Zaiwen Wen , Michael Ulbrich

As saturated output observations are ubiquitous in practice, identifying stochastic systems with such nonlinear observations is a fundamental problem across various fields. This paper investigates the asymptotically efficient identification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Lantian Zhang , Lei Guo

Consider the standard stochastic reaction network model where the dynamics is given by a continuous-time Markov chain over a discrete lattice. For such models, estimation of parameter sensitivities is an important problem, but the existing…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-05-01 Patrik Dürrenberger , Ankit Gupta , Mustafa Khammash

A stochastic filter uses a series of measurements over time to produce estimates of unknown variables based on a dynamic model. For a quantum system, such an algorithm is provided by a quantum filter, which is also known as a stochastic…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-07-25 Muhammad F. Emzir , Matthew J. Woolley , Ian R. Petersen

A series of novel filters for probabilistic inference that propose an alternative way of performing Bayesian updates, called particle flow filters, have been attracting recent interest. These filters provide approximate solutions to…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-24 Flávio Eler De Melo , Simon Maskell , Matteo Fasiolo , Fred Daum

This paper presents a new robust fault and state estimation based on recursive least square filter for linear stochastic systems with unknown disturbances. The novel elements of the algorithm are : a simple, easily implementable, square…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2013-06-20 Bessaoudi Talel , Ben Hmida Fayçal

Stochastic gradient descent type methods are ubiquitous in machine learning, but they are only applicable to the optimization of differentiable functions. Proximal algorithms are more general and applicable to nonsmooth functions. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-20 Laurent Condat , Elnur Gasanov , Peter Richtárik

Stochastic averaging allows for the reduction of the dimension and complexity of stochastic dynamical systems with multiple time scales, replacing fast variables with statistically equivalent stochastic processes in order to analyze…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-25 William F. Thompson , Rachel A. Kuske , Adam H. Monahan

A method is developed to estimate the properties of a global hydrodynamic instability in turbulent flows from measurement data of the limit-cycle oscillations. For this purpose, the flow dynamics are separated in deterministic contributions…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-04-21 Moritz Sieber , C. Oliver Paschereit , Kilian Oberleithner

We analyze convergence rates of stochastic optimization procedures for non-smooth convex optimization problems. By combining randomized smoothing techniques with accelerated gradient methods, we obtain convergence rates of stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-04-10 John C. Duchi , Peter L. Bartlett , Martin J. Wainwright

Stochastic resetting, the procedure of stopping and re-initializing random processes, has recently emerged as a powerful tool for accelerating processes ranging from queuing systems to molecular simulations. However, its usefulness is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-03-18 Tommer D. Keidar , Ofir Blumer , Barak Hirshberg , Shlomi Reuveni

We consider the problem of estimating the dynamic latent states of an intracellular multiscale stochastic reaction network from time-course measurements of fluorescent reporters. We first prove that accurate solutions to the filtering…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-09 Zhou Fang , Ankit Gupta , Mustafa Khammash

We propose a novel approach to input design for identification of nonlinear state space models. The optimal input sequence is obtained by maximizing a scalar cost function of the Fisher information matrix. Since the Fisher information…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-18 Patricio E. Valenzuela , Johan Dahlin , Cristian R. Rojas , Thomas B. Schön

The adaptive identification of the impulse response of an innovation filter is considered. The impulse response is a finite sum of known basis functions with unknown coefficients. These unknown coefficients are estimated using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-18 Andrew P. Mullhaupt , Kurt S. Riedel

The Kalman filter is the most powerful tool for estimation of the states of a linear Gaussian system. In addition, using this method, an expectation maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters of the model. However, this…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-01 Tsuyoshi Ishizone , Kazuyuki Nakamura

A central obstacle in nonlinear Bayesian filtering is representing the belief distribution. Moment-based filters address this by propagating polynomial moments and reconstructing a density from them. Recent work completes the predict-update…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-19 Kaito Iwasaki , Anthony Bloch , Taeyoung Lee , Maani Ghaffari

Stochastic filtering is defined as the estimation of a partially observed dynamical system. A massive scientific and computational effort is dedicated to the development of numerical methods for approximating the solution of the filtering…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-04 Dan Crisan , Kai Li

Our study focuses on fractional order compartment models derived from underlying physical stochastic processes, providing a more physically grounded approach compared to models that use the dynamical system approach by simply replacing…