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Change point detection in time series aims to identify moments when the probability distribution of time series changes. It is widely applied in many areas, such as human activity sensing and medical science. In the context of multivariate…
Joint modelling of longitudinal observations and event times continues to remain a topic of considerable interest in biomedical research. For example, in HIV studies, the longitudinal bio-marker such as CD4 cell count in a patient's blood…
The class of $\alpha$-stable distributions received much interest for modelling impulsive phenomena occur in engineering, economics, insurance, and physics. The lack of non-analytical form for probability density function is considered as…
Modelling of precipitation, including extremes, is important for hydrological and agricultural applications. Traditionally, because of large sample properties for data over a large threshold value, generalised Pareto (GP) distributions are…
Large-scale empirical data, the sample size and the dimension are high, often exhibit various characteristics. For example, the noise term follows unknown distributions or the model is very sparse that the number of critical variables is…
Survey data are widely used to study how income inequality, poverty, and welfare evolve over time. A common practice is to estimate the income distribution separately for each year, treating annual observations as independent…
Commonly observed patterns typically follow a few distinct families of probability distributions. Over one hundred years ago, Karl Pearson provided a systematic derivation and classification of the common continuous distributions. His…
If the prior probability distributions of all possible hypothetical true means and all possible observed means of a continuous variable are conditional on the universal set of all numbers (i.e., before the nature of a study is known and a…
From a suitable integral representation of the Laplace transform of a positive semi-definite quadratic form of independent real random variables with not necessarily identical densities a univariate integral representation is derived for…
Model-based clustering imposes a finite mixture modelling structure on data for clustering. Finite mixture models assume that the population is a convex combination of a finite number of densities, the distribution within each population is…
Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…
Many common loss functions such as mean-squared-error, cross-entropy, and reconstruction loss are unnecessarily rigid. Under a probabilistic interpretation, these common losses correspond to distributions with fixed shapes and scales. We…
This article presents a new class of generalized transmuted lifetime distributions which includes a large number of lifetime distributions as sub-family. Several important mathematical quantities such as density function, distribution…
The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…
In this paper we develop a very general class of bivariate discrete distributions. The basic idea is very simple. The marginals are obtained by taking the random geometric sum of a baseline distribution function. The proposed class of…
In this study, we propose a general model capable of addressing heterogeneity in higher-order moments while preserving mean and variance, including the t, Laplace, and skew-normal distributions as special cases. Our model flexibly…
The popular generalized additive model framework is extended to allow both the mean curves and the response distribution to be nonparametric. The approach is demonstrated to be a flexible yet parsimonious tool for data analysis in its own…
We construct flexible likelihoods for multi-output Gaussian process models that leverage neural networks as components. We make use of sparse variational inference methods to enable scalable approximate inference for the resulting class of…
We introduce a hierarchical nonparametric model for probability measures based on a multi-resolution transformation of probability distributions. The model allows a varying amount of shrinkage to be applied to data features of different…
The execution time of programs is a key element in many areas of computer science, mainly those where achieving good performance (e.g., scheduling in cloud computing) or a predictable one (e.g., meeting deadlines in embedded systems) is the…