Related papers: Metastability, atmospheric midlatitude circulation…
We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long model trajectory, we show that blockings are associated with…
In this article, we review the metastable hierarchy in low-temperature lattice models. In the first part, we state that for any abstract lattice system governed by a Hamiltonian potential and evolving according to a Metropolis-type…
The extratropical meridional energy transport in the atmosphere is fundamentally intermittent in nature, having extremes large enough to affect the net seasonal transport. Here, we investigate how these extreme transports are associated…
The Hadley circulation describes a planetary-scale tropical atmospheric flow, which has a major influence on climate. Contemporary theoretical understanding is based upon angular momentum conservation, the basic dynamical constraint…
Metastability in open system dynamics describes the phenomena of initial relaxation to longlived metastable states before decaying to the asymptotic stable states. It has been predicted in continuous-time stochastic dynamics of both…
We consider simple stochastic climate models, described by slowly time-dependent Langevin equations. We show that when the noise intensity is not too large, these systems can spend substantial amounts of time in metastable equilibrium,…
Metastability is a phenomenon observed in stochastic systems which stay in a false-equilibrium within a region of its state space until the occurrence of a sequence of rare events that leads to an abrupt transition to a different region.…
We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyze their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasipotentials, and viewing the state space as…
The recent revolution in data-driven methods for weather forecasting has lead to a fragmented landscape of complex, bespoke architectures and training strategies, obscuring the fundamental drivers of forecast accuracy. Here, we demonstrate…
Dynamic transportation networks have been analyzed for years by means of static graph-based indicators in order to study the temporal evolution of relevant network components, and to reveal complex dependencies that would not be easily…
Self-consistent chaotic transport is studied in a Hamiltonian mean-field model. The model provides a simplified description of transport in marginally stable systems including vorticity mixing in strong shear flows and electron dynamics in…
Interconnected networks describe the dynamics of important systems in a wide range such as biological systems and electrical power grids. Some important features of these systems were successfully studied and understood through simplified…
Recent advances in metagenomics have revealed macroecological patterns or "laws" describing robust statistical regularities across microbial communities. Stochastic logistic models (SLMs), which treat species as independent -- akin to ideal…
The Hamiltonian Mean Field model describes a system of N fully-coupled particles showing a second-order phase transition as a function of the energy. The dynamics of the model presents interesting features in a small energy region below the…
We develop a semi-parametric state-space model for time-series data with latent regime transitions. Classical Markov-switching models use fixed parametric transition functions, such as logistic or probit links, which restrict flexibility…
We explore situations in which certain stochastic and high-dimensional deterministic systems behave effectively as low-dimensional dynamical systems. We define and study moment maps, maps on spaces of low-order moments of evolving…
The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…
It has recently been proposed that Earth-like planets in the outer regions of the habitable zone experience unstable climates, repeatedly cycling between glaciated and deglaciated climatic states (Menou 2015). While this result has been…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…
Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…