English
Related papers

Related papers: How Certain are Uncertainty Estimates? Three Novel…

200 papers

In principle, deep learning models trained on medical time-series, including wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) sensor data, can provide a means to continuously monitor physiological parameters outside of clinical settings. However, there…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to assess prediction quality of a machine learning model. In the case of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), most methods proposed in the literature make strong assumptions on the data, ignore the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Fabian Guignard , Federico Amato , Mikhail Kanevski

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Tiejin Chen , Longchao Da , Xiaoou Liu , Hua Wei

Air pollution is a global hazard, and as of 2023, 94\% of the world's population is exposed to unsafe pollution levels. Surface Ozone (O3), an important pollutant, and the drivers of its trends are difficult to model, and traditional…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key discipline for computational modeling of complex systems, enhancing reliability of engineering simulations. In crashworthiness, having an accurate assessment of the behavior of the model uncertainty…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Marc Rocas , Alberto García-González , Sergio Zlotnik , Xabier Larráyoz , Pedro Díez

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Recent advances in generative video models have led to significant breakthroughs in high-fidelity video synthesis, specifically in controllable video generation where the generated video is conditioned on text and action inputs, e.g., in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Zhiting Mei , Tenny Yin , Micah Baker , Ola Shorinwa , Anirudha Majumdar

Uncertainty quantification is a key pillar of trustworthy machine learning. It enables safe reactions under unsafe inputs, like predicting only when the machine learning model detects sufficient evidence, discarding anomalous data, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Michael Kirchhof

Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Tim Tomov , Dominik Fuchsgruber , Tom Wollschläger , Stephan Günnemann

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) research has primarily focused on closed-book factual question answering (QA), while contextual QA remains unexplored, despite its importance in real-world applications. In this work, we focus on UQ for the…

Neural Network (NN) models provide potential to speed up the drug discovery process and reduce its failure rates. The success of NN models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) as drug discovery explores chemical space beyond the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Ya Ju Fan , Jonathan E. Allen , Kevin S. McLoughlin , Da Shi , Brian J. Bennion , Xiaohua Zhang , Felice C. Lightstone

The rapid proliferation of large language models (LLMs) has stimulated researchers to seek effective and efficient approaches to deal with LLM hallucinations and low-quality outputs. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a key element of…

It is necessary to estimate the expected energy usage of a building to determine how to reduce energy usage. The expected energy usage of a building can be reliably simulated using a Building Energy Model (BEM). Many of the numerous input…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Arpan Mukherjee , Anna Kuechle Szweda , Andrew Alegria , Rahul Rai , Tarunraj Singh

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying machine learning models in safety-critical physical systems, yet classical Bayesian approaches incur substantial computational overhead. We establish a formal connection between…

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Longze Li , Jiang Chang , Aleksandar Vakanski , Yachun Wang , Tiankai Yao , Min Xian

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Mikkel Jordahn , Jonas Vestergaard Jensen , James Harrison , Michael Riis Andersen , Mikkel N. Schmidt

With increasing deployment of machine learning systems in various real-world tasks, there is a greater need for accurate quantification of predictive uncertainty. While the common goal in uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Youngseog Chung , Ian Char , Han Guo , Jeff Schneider , Willie Neiswanger

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), or Bayesian calibration, is the process to quantify the uncertainties of random input parameters based on experimental data. The introduction of model discrepancy term is significant because…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-24 Xu Wu , Koroush Shirvan , Tomasz Kozlowski

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning models is a critical step to reduce human verification effort by detecting predictions with low confidence. This paper proposes a method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of table structure…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Kehinde Ajayi , Leizhen Zhang , Yi He , Jian Wu

Being uncertain when facing the unknown is key to intelligent decision making. However, machine learning algorithms lack reliable estimates about their predictive uncertainty. This leads to wrong and overly-confident decisions when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Mohamed Ishmael Belghazi , David Lopez-Paz