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In the stock market, a successful investment requires a good balance between profits and risks. Based on the learning to rank paradigm, stock recommendation has been widely studied in quantitative finance to recommend stocks with higher…
Assessing dependence within co-movements of financial instruments has been of much interest in risk management. Typically, indices of tail dependence are used to quantify the strength of such dependence, although many of the indices…
This paper introduces a global stock market volatility forecasting model that enhances forecasting accuracy and practical utility in real-world financial decision-making by integrating dynamic graph structures and encompassing all active…
We investigate the application of the Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm for the estimation of tail probabilities of solutions of Stochastic Differential Equations evaluated at a given time, and of associated temporal averages. We…
With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed…
In real-world scenarios, risk-averse learning is valuable for mitigating potential adverse outcomes. However, the delayed feedback makes it challenging to assess and manage risk effectively. In this paper, we investigate risk-averse…
Rapid development of advanced modelling techniques gives an opportunity to develop tools that are more and more accurate. However as usually, everything comes with a price and in this case, the price to pay is to loose interpretability of a…
The paper focuses on econometrically justified robust analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets in different countries across the World. It provides the results of robust estimation and inference on predictive…
We investigate a stationary random coefficient autoregressive process. Using renewal type arguments tailor-made for such processes, we show that the stationary distribution has a power-law tail. When the model is normal, we show that the…
This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation…
The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…
In risk theory, financial asset returns often follow heavy-tailed distributions. Investors and risk managers used to compare risk measures as the value at risk or tail value at risk in order over the whole confidence levels to avoid the…
The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the two-sided Weibull distribution, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. Further, the realized range, as a competitor for realized…
Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…
Value at risk (VaR) is a risk measure that has been widely implemented by financial institutions. This paper measures the correlation among asset price changes implied from VaR calculation. Empirical results using US and UK equity indexes…
Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…
The measure of portfolio risk is an important input of the Markowitz framework. In this study, we explored various methods to obtain a robust covariance estimators that are less susceptible to financial data noise. We evaluated the…
The success of OpenAI's ChatGPT in 2023 has spurred financial enterprises into exploring Generative AI applications to reduce costs or drive revenue within different lines of businesses in the Financial Industry. While these applications…
In recent years, the dynamic factor model has emerged as a dominant tool in economics and finance, particularly for investment strategies. This model offers improved handling of complex, nonlinear, and noisy market conditions compared to…
We propose GradTail, an algorithm that uses gradients to improve model performance on the fly in the face of long-tailed training data distributions. Unlike conventional long-tail classifiers which operate on converged - and possibly…