Related papers: Density forecast transformations
Meta-elliptical copulas are often proposed to model dependence between the components of a random vector. They are specified by a correlation matrix and a map $g$, called density generator. While the latter correlation matrix can easily be…
We study an unbiased estimator for the density of a sum of random variables that are simulated from a computer model. A numerical study on examples with copula dependence is conducted where the proposed estimator performs favourably in…
Cylindrical data frequently arise across various scientific disciplines, including meteorology (e.g., wind direction and speed), oceanography (e.g., marine current direction and speed or wave heights), ecology (e.g., telemetry), and…
The composite likelihood (CL) is amongst the computational methods used for the estimation of high-dimensional multivariate normal (MVN) copula models with discrete responses. Its computational advantage, as a surrogate likelihood method,…
Factor models are a parsimonious way to explain the dependence of variables using several latent variables. In Gaussian 1-factor and structural factor models (such as bi-factor, oblique factor) and their factor copula counterparts, factor…
Our article addresses the problem of flexibly estimating a multivariate density while also attempting to estimate its marginals correctly. We do so by proposing two new estimators that try to capture the best features of mixture of normals…
Probability density estimation is a central task in statistics. Copula-based models provide a great deal of flexibility in modelling multivariate distributions, allowing for the specifications of models for the marginal distributions…
Implicit copulas are the most common copula choice for modeling dependence in high dimensions. This broad class of copulas is introduced and surveyed, including elliptical copulas, skew $t$ copulas, factor copulas, time series copulas and…
The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, the practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive…
In this paper, we derive copula-based and empirical dependency models (DMs) for simulating non-independent variables, and then propose a new way for determining the distribution of the model outputs conditional on every subset of inputs.…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as…
Rainfall is an important component of the climate system and its statistical properties are vital for prediction purposes. In this study, we have developed a statistical method for constructing the distribution of annual precipitation. The…
We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the…
In recent biomedical scientific problems, it is a fundamental issue to integratively cluster a set of objects from multiple sources of datasets. Such problems are mostly encountered in genomics, where data is collected from various sources,…
Today weather forecasting is conducted using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, consisting of a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the atmosphere. The output of such NWP models are single deterministic…
Modeling of high order multivariate probability distribution is a difficult problem which occurs in many fields. Copula approach is a good choice for this purpose, but the curse of dimensionality still remains a problem. In this paper we…
Building higher-dimensional copulas is generally recognized as a difficult problem. Regular-vines using bivariate copulas provide a flexible class of high-dimensional dependency models. In large dimensions, the drawback of the model is the…
This paper constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous coefficients as well as cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. The panel considered in…
Conformal prediction is an assumption-lean approach to generating distribution-free prediction intervals or sets, for nearly arbitrary predictive models, with guaranteed finite-sample coverage. Conformal methods are an active research topic…
Multivariate time series (MTS) data often include a heterogeneous mix of non-Gaussian distributional features (asymmetry, multimodality, heavy tails) and data types (continuous and discrete variables). Traditional MTS methods based on…