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Improving calibration performance in deep learning (DL) classification models is important when planning the use of DL in a decision-support setting. In such a scenario, a confident wrong prediction could lead to a lack of trust and/or harm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Tareen Dawood , Bram Ruijsink , Reza Razavi , Andrew P. King , Esther Puyol-Antón

This paper introduces a novel approach to quantify the uncertainties in fault diagnosis of motor drives using Bayesian neural networks (BNN). Conventional data-driven approaches used for fault diagnosis often rely on point-estimate neural…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-16 Subham Sahoo , Huai Wang , Frede Blaabjerg

Structure-agnostic causal inference studies how well one can estimate a treatment effect given black-box machine learning estimates of nuisance functions (like the impact of confounders on treatment and outcomes). Here, we find that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-10 Jikai Jin , Lester Mackey , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Measuring domain relevance of data and identifying or selecting well-fit domain data for machine translation (MT) is a well-studied topic, but denoising is not yet. Denoising is concerned with a different type of data quality and tries to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-09-05 Wei Wang , Taro Watanabe , Macduff Hughes , Tetsuji Nakagawa , Ciprian Chelba

A key requirement in developing Generative Language Models (GLMs) is to have their values aligned with human values. Preference-based alignment is a widely used paradigm for this purpose, in which preferences over generation pairs are first…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Yang Gao , Dana Alon , Donald Metzler

Diffusion models (DM) have become fundamental components of generative models, excelling across various domains such as image creation, audio generation, and complex data interpolation. Signal-to-Noise diffusion models constitute a diverse…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-08-09 Khanh Doan , Long Tung Vuong , Tuan Nguyen , Anh Tuan Bui , Quyen Tran , Thanh-Toan Do , Dinh Phung , Trung Le

Developing large language models is expensive and involves making decisions with small experiments, typically by evaluating on large, multi-task evaluation suites. In this work, we analyze specific properties which make a benchmark more…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-19 David Heineman , Valentin Hofmann , Ian Magnusson , Yuling Gu , Noah A. Smith , Hannaneh Hajishirzi , Kyle Lo , Jesse Dodge

A prominent family of methods for learning data distributions relies on density ratio estimation (DRE), where a model is trained to $\textit{classify}$ between data samples and samples from some reference distribution. DRE-based models can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Shahar Yadin , Noam Elata , Tomer Michaeli

This paper aims at the study of controllability properties and induced controllability metrics on complex networks governed by a class of (discrete time) linear decision processes with mul-tiplicative noise. The dynamics are given by a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-12-15 Tidiane Diallo , Dan Goreac

Deep learning models frequently make incorrect predictions with high confidence when presented with test examples that are not well represented in their training dataset. We propose a novel and straightforward approach to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-04 Tiago Ramalho , Miguel Miranda

The development of LLMs has greatly enhanced the intelligence and fluency of question answering, while the emergence of retrieval enhancement has enabled models to better utilize external information. However, the presence of noise and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Xingyun Hong , Yan Shao , Zhilin Wang , Manni Duan , Jin Xiongnan

This paper introduces a framework for capturing stochasticity of choice probabilities in neural networks, derived from and fully consistent with the Random Utility Maximization (RUM) theory, referred to as RUM-NN. Neural network models show…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-10 Niousha Bagheri , Milad Ghasri , Michael Barlow

Uncertainty quantification in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based predictions of material properties is of immense importance for the success and reliability of AI applications in material science. While confidence intervals are commonly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-16 Francesca Tavazza , Brian De Cost , Kamal Choudhary

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainty by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have focused…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-25 Cooper Lorsung

This paper introduces a new notion of dimensionality of probabilistic models from an information-theoretic view point. We call it the "descriptive dimension"(Ddim). We show that Ddim coincides with the number of independent parameters for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-28 Kenji Yamanishi

Recent work has shown that machine learning (ML) models can be trained to accurately forecast the dynamics of unknown chaotic dynamical systems. Short-term predictions of the state evolution and long-term predictions of the statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Alexander Wikner , Joseph Harvey , Michelle Girvan , Brian R. Hunt , Andrew Pomerance , Thomas Antonsen , Edward Ott

A new strategy, namely the "clean numerical simulation" (CNS), was proposed (J. Computational Physics, 418:109629, 2020) to gain reliable/convergent simulations (with negligible numerical noises) of spatiotemporal chaotic systems in a long…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-09-15 Yu Yang , Shijie Qin , Shijun Liao

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

Deep Metric Learning (DML) plays a critical role in various machine learning tasks. However, most existing deep metric learning methods with binary similarity are sensitive to noisy labels, which are widely present in real-world data. Since…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Jiexi Yan , Lei Luo , Cheng Deng , Heng Huang

Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) statistics play a central role in many applications. A common situation where SNR is studied is when a continuous time signal is sampled at a fixed frequency with some noise in the background. While estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-05 Francesco Giordano , Pietro Coretto