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When deploying deep neural networks on robots or other physical systems, the learned model should reliably quantify predictive uncertainty. A reliable uncertainty allows downstream modules to reason about the safety of its actions. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Simon Kristoffersson Lind , Ziliang Xiong , Per-Erik Forssén , Volker Krüger

We propose a novel iterative algorithm for estimating a deterministic but unknown parameter vector in the presence of model uncertainties. This iterative algorithm is based on a system model where an overall noise term describes both, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-27 Oliver Lang , Michael Lunglmayr , Mario Huemer

The growing field of nano nuclear magnetic resonance (nano-NMR) seeks to estimate spectra or discriminate between spectra of minuscule amounts of complex molecules. While this field holds great promise, nano-NMR experiments suffer from…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-12-02 Nati Aharon , Amit Rotem , Liam P. McGuinness , Fedor Jelezko , Alex Retzker , Zohar Ringel

Prognostics or Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation from multi-sensor time series data is useful to enable condition-based maintenance and ensure high operational availability of equipment. We propose a novel deep learning based approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-05 Vishnu TV , Diksha , Pankaj Malhotra , Lovekesh Vig , Gautam Shroff

Traditional metrics like accuracy, F1-score, and precision are frequently used to evaluate machine learning models, however they may not be sufficient for evaluating performance on tiny, unbalanced, or high-dimensional datasets. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Serzhan Ossenov

In many statistical and econometric applications, we gather individual samples from various interconnected populations that undeniably exhibit common latent structures. Utilizing a model that incorporates these latent structures for such…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Archer Gong Zhang , Jiahua Chen

This paper introduces a consistent estimator and rate of convergence for the precision matrix of asset returns in large portfolios using a non-linear factor model within the deep learning framework. Our estimator remains valid even in low…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-30 Mehmet Caner , Maurizio Daniele

Humans possess a finely tuned sense of uncertainty that helps anticipate potential errors, vital for adaptive behavior and survival. However, the underlying neural mechanisms remain unclear. This study applies moment neural networks (MNNs)…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-11-22 Hengyuan Ma , Wenlian Lu , Jianfeng Feng

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are becoming integral components of real world services relied upon by millions of users. Unfortunately, architects of these systems can find it difficult to ensure reliable performance as irrelevant details like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-22 Arghya Datta , Subhrangshu Nandi , Jingcheng Xu , Greg Ver Steeg , He Xie , Anoop Kumar , Aram Galstyan

Residual variance and the signal-to-noise ratio are important quantities in many statistical models and model fitting procedures. They play an important role in regression diagnostics, in determining the performance limits in estimation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-04 Lee H. Dicker

Semi-supervised learning algorithms reduce the high cost of acquiring labeled training data by using both labeled and unlabeled data during learning. Deep Convolutional Networks (DCNs) have achieved great success in supervised tasks and as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-07 Tan Nguyen , Wanjia Liu , Ethan Perez , Richard G. Baraniuk , Ankit B. Patel

Noisy labels are ubiquitous in real-world datasets, which poses a challenge for robustly training deep neural networks (DNNs) as DNNs usually have the high capacity to memorize the noisy labels. In this paper, we find that the test accuracy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-14 Pengfei Chen , Benben Liao , Guangyong Chen , Shengyu Zhang

This paper investigates how various randomization techniques impact Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Randomization, like weight noise and dropout, aids in reducing overfitting and enhancing generalization, but their interactions are poorly…

Quantification of uncertainty is one of the most promising approaches to establish safe machine learning. Despite its importance, it is far from being generally solved, especially for neural networks. One of the most commonly used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Joachim Sicking , Maram Akila , Maximilian Pintz , Tim Wirtz , Asja Fischer , Stefan Wrobel

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Marco Zullich

Nondeterminism in neural network optimization produces uncertainty in performance, making small improvements difficult to discern from run-to-run variability. While uncertainty can be reduced by training multiple model copies, doing so is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-13 Cecilia Summers , Michael J. Dinneen

Motion planning under uncertainty is essential for reliable robot operation. Despite substantial advances over the past decade, the problem remains difficult for systems with complex dynamics. Most state-of-the-art methods perform search…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-06-01 Marcus Hoerger , Hanna Kurniawati , Alberto Elfes

A rise in popularity of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), attributed to more powerful GPUs and widely available datasets, has seen them being increasingly used within safety-critical domains. One such domain, self-driving, has benefited from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Rhiannon Michelmore , Marta Kwiatkowska , Yarin Gal

In model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, using noisy value estimates to supervise policy evaluation and optimization is detrimental to the sample efficiency. As this noise is heteroscedastic, its effects can be mitigated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-04 Vincent Mai , Kaustubh Mani , Liam Paull