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Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Wang Yuyan , Michael Evans , David J. Nott

Due to their uncertainty quantification, Bayesian solutions to inverse problems are the framework of choice in applications that are risk averse. These benefits come at the cost of computations that are in general, intractable. New advances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Rafael Orozco , Ali Siahkoohi , Mathias Louboutin , Felix J. Herrmann

Across many domains of science, stochastic models are an essential tool to understand the mechanisms underlying empirically observed data. Models can be of different levels of detail and accuracy, with models of high-fidelity (i.e., high…

There is a growing interest in studying sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques due to their advantages for simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. The methods aim to learn the posterior from adaptively…

Computation · Statistics 2025-10-16 Xiliang Yang , Yifei Xiong , Zhijian He

How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-21 David S. Greenberg , Marcel Nonnenmacher , Jakob H. Macke

Computer simulations have proven a valuable tool for understanding complex phenomena across the sciences. However, the utility of simulators for modelling and forecasting purposes is often restricted by low data quality, as well as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-14 Daniel Ward , Patrick Cannon , Mark Beaumont , Matteo Fasiolo , Sebastian M Schmon

We develop a Bayesian inference method for discretely-observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Inference is challenging for most SDEs, due to the analytical intractability of the likelihood function. Nevertheless, forward…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-08 Petar Jovanovski , Andrew Golightly , Umberto Picchini

Active statistical inference is a new method for inference with AI-assisted data collection. Given a budget on the number of labeled data points that can be collected and assuming access to an AI predictive model, the basic idea is to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-13 Puheng Li , Tijana Zrnic , Emmanuel Candès

Sensitivity analyses reveal the influence of various modeling choices on the outcomes of statistical analyses. While theoretically appealing, they are overwhelmingly inefficient for complex Bayesian models. In this work, we propose…

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) data stream will inevitably contain gaps due to maintenance and environmental disturbances, introducing nonstationarities and spectral leakage that compromise standard frequency-domain…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-30 Ruiting Mao , Jeong Eun Lee , Matthew C. Edwards

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-29 Alexander Moreno , Tameem Adel , Edward Meeds , James M. Rehg , Max Welling

Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-04 Yuling Yao , Bruno Régaldo-Saint Blancard , Justin Domke

Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…

Generative models and those with computationally intractable likelihoods are widely used to describe complex systems in the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Fitting these models to data requires likelihood-free inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Rui Zhang , Oksana A. Chkrebtii , Dongbin Xiu

The development of mechanistic models of physical systems is essential for understanding their behavior and formulating predictions that can be validated experimentally. Calibration of these models, especially for complex systems, requires…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-12-04 Jakob Huhle , Jakob Kaiser , Eric Müller , Johannes Schemmel

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) provide an energy-efficient solution by utilizing the spike-based and sparse nature of biological systems. Since the advent of Transformers, SNNs have struggled to compete with artificial networks on long…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Yan Zhong , Ruoyu Zhao , Chao Wang , Qinghai Guo , Jianguo Zhang , Zhichao Lu , Luziwei Leng

Sequential algorithms such as sequential importance sampling (SIS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) have proven fundamental in Bayesian inference for models not admitting a readily available likelihood function. For approximate Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-08 Umberto Picchini , Massimiliano Tamborrino

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-21 James Alvey , Carlo R. Contaldi , Mauro Pieroni

The rapid proliferation of high-quality synthetic data -- generated by advanced AI models or collected as auxiliary data from related tasks -- presents both opportunities and challenges for statistical inference. This paper introduces a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Meshi Bashari , Yonghoon Lee , Roy Maor Lotan , Edgar Dobriban , Yaniv Romano

In recent years, active subspace methods (ASMs) have become a popular means of performing subspace sensitivity analysis on black-box functions. Naively applied, however, ASMs require gradient evaluations of the target function. In the event…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-22 Nathan Wycoff , Mickael Binois , Stefan M. Wild