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Network interference, where the outcome of an individual is affected by the treatment assignment of those in their social network, is pervasive in real-world settings. However, it poses a challenge to estimating causal effects. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Mayleen Cortez-Rodriguez , Matthew Eichhorn , Christina Lee Yu

Information diffusion mechanisms based on social influence models are mainly studied using likelihood of adoption when active neighbors expose a user to a message. The problem arises primarily from the fact that for the most part, this…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-03-24 Soumajyoti Sarkar , Hamidreza Alvari , Paulo Shakarian

The past decade has seen an increasing body of literature devoted to the estimation of causal effects in network-dependent data. However, the validity of many classical statistical methods in such data is often questioned. There is an…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-31 Oleg Sofrygin , Romain Neugebauer , Mark J. van der Laan

We study causal effect estimation under interference from network data. We work under the chain-graph formulation pioneered in Tchetgen Tchetgen et. al (2021). Our first result shows that polynomial time evaluation of treatment effects is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Sohom Bhattacharya , Subhabrata Sen

With the advancement of information technology, more people, especially young adults, are getting addicted to the use of different social media platforms. Despite immense useful applications in communication and interactions, the habit of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-07-20 Dibyajyoti Mallick , Priya Chakraborty , Sayantari Ghosh

The paper concerns the problem of predicting the effect of actions or interventions on a system from a combination of (i) statistical data on a set of observed variables, and (ii) qualitative causal knowledge encoded in the form of a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Carlos Brito , Judea Pearl

With multiple potential mediators on the causal pathway from a treatment to an outcome, we consider the problem of decomposing the effects along multiple possible causal path(s) through each distinct mediator. Under Pearl's path-specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Beatrijs Moerkerke , Tom Loeys , Stijn Vansteelandt

It is often of interest to decompose a total effect of an exposure into the component that acts on the outcome through some mediator and the component that acts independently through other pathways. Said another way, we are interested in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-21 Peng Ding , Tyler J. VanderWeele

We consider mediated effects of an exposure, X on an outcome, Y, via a mediator, M, under no unmeasured confounding assumptions in the setting where models for the conditional expectation of the mediator and outcome are partially linear. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Oliver Hines , Stijn Vansteelandt , Karla Diaz-Ordaz

I study peer effects that arise from irreversible decisions in the absence of a standard social equilibrium. I model a latent sequence of decisions in continuous time and obtain a closed-form expression for the likelihood, which allows to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-18 Vincent Starck

Causal inference is a crucial goal of science, enabling researchers to arrive at meaningful conclusions regarding the predictions of hypothetical interventions using observational data. Path models, Structural Equation Models (SEMs), and,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-11 Matthew J. Vowels

The use of causal mediation analysis to evaluate the pathways by which an exposure affects an outcome is widespread in the social and biomedical sciences. Recent advances in this area have established formal conditions for identification…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Isabel R. Fulcher , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

We study treatment effect modifiers for causal analysis in a social network, where neighbors' characteristics or network structure may affect the outcome of a unit, and the goal is to identify sub-populations with varying treatment effects…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Amir Gilad , Harsh Parikh , Sudeepa Roy , Babak Salimi

Understanding network influence and its determinants are key challenges in political science and network analysis. Traditional latent variable models position actors within a social space based on network dependencies but often do not…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-28 Shahryar Minhas , Peter D. Hoff

A key element in the education of youths is their sensitization to historical and artistic heritage. We analyze a field experiment conducted in Florence (Italy) to assess how appropriate incentives assigned to high-school classes may induce…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-09 Silvia Noirjean , Marco Mariani , Alessandra Mattei , Fabrizia Mealli

Decomposing a total causal effect into natural direct and indirect effects is central to revealing causal mechanisms. Conventional methods achieve the decomposition by specifying an outcome model as a linear function of the treatment, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-05 Guanglei Hong

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Jie Qiao , Yuguang Yan , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced…

This paper introduces a framework to analyze time-varying spillover effects in panel data. We consider panel models where a unit's outcome depends not only on its own characteristics (private effects) but also on the characteristics of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-17 Ryo Okui , Yutao Sun , Wendun Wang

We introduce structured prediction energy networks (SPENs), a flexible framework for structured prediction. A deep architecture is used to define an energy function of candidate labels, and then predictions are produced by using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-08 David Belanger , Andrew McCallum