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Given a general It\^o semimartingale, its Markovian projection is an It\^o process, with Markovian differential characteristics, that matches the one-dimensional marginal laws of the original process. We construct Markovian projections for…
Given an It\^o semimartingale $X$, its Markovian projection is an It\^o semimartingale $\widehat{X}$, with Markovian differential characteristics, that matches the one-dimensional marginal laws of $X$. One may even require certain…
Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…
We study two-dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of McKean--Vlasov type in which the conditional distribution of the second component of the solution given the first enters the equation for the first component of the…
The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial…
We describe stochastic calculus in the context of processes that are driven by an adapted point process of locally finite intensity and are differentiable between jumps. This includes Markov chains as well as non-Markov processes. By…
This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…
A rescaled Markov chain converges uniformly in probability to the solution of an ordinary differential equation, under carefully specified assumptions. The presentation is much simpler than those in the outside literature. The result may be…
The objective of this paper is to study the filtering problem for a system of partially observable processes $(X, Y)$, where $X$ is a non-Markovian pure-jump process representing the signal and $Y$ is a general jump-diffusion which provides…
We develop a stochastic calculus for processes which are built by convoluting a pure jump, zero expectation L\'{e}vy process with a Volterra-type kernel. This class of processes contains, for example, fractional L\'{e}vy processes as…
We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajec- tories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive…
Up to now, the nonparametric analysis of multidimensional continuous-time Markov processes has focussed strongly on specific model choices, mostly related to symmetry of the semigroup. While this approach allows to study the performance of…
We present a simulation methodology for Bayesian estimation of rate parameters in Markov jump processes arising for example in stochastic kinetic models. To handle the problem of missing components and measurement errors in observed data,…
We present a new method for simulating Markovian jump processes with time-dependent transitions rates, which avoids the transformation of random numbers by inverting time integrals over the rates. It relies on constructing a sequence of…
Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…
We propose new nonparametric estimators of the integrated volatility of an It\^{o} semimartingale observed at discrete times on a fixed time interval with mesh of the observation grid shrinking to zero. The proposed estimators achieve the…
Stochastic approximation is a framework unifying many random iterative algorithms occurring in a diverse range of applications. The stability of the process is often difficult to verify in practical applications and the process may even be…
In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is…
It is well-known from the work of Sch\"onbucher (2005) that the marginal laws of a loss process can be matched by a unit increasing time inhomogeneous Markov process, whose deterministic jump intensity is called local intensity. The…
Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is…