Related papers: Numerical Estimation of Limiting Large-Deviation R…
This paper studies binary logistic regression for rare events data, or imbalanced data, where the number of events (observations in one class, often called cases) is significantly smaller than the number of nonevents (observations in the…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
We study the statistics of the maximum and minimum of a set of $N$ random variables whose dynamical and statistical properties fall within the scope of infinite ergodic theory. These non-stationary yet recurrent systems are described, in…
Extremes play a special role in Anomaly Detection. Beyond inference and simulation purposes, probabilistic tools borrowed from Extreme Value Theory (EVT), such as the angular measure, can also be used to design novel statistical learning…
The development of enhanced sampling methods has greatly extended the scope of atomistic simulations, allowing long-time phenomena to be studied with accessible computational resources. Many such methods rely on the identification of an…
We consider a dynamic Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph (ERRG) on $n$ vertices in which each edge switches on at rate $\lambda$ and switches off at rate $\mu$, independently of other edges. The focus is on the analysis of the evolution of the…
We study the stochastic block model which is often used to model community structures and study community-detection algorithms. We consider the case of two blocks in regard to its largest connected component and largest biconnected…
A common approach to statistical learning with big-data is to randomly split it among $m$ machines and learn the parameter of interest by averaging the $m$ individual estimates. In this paper, focusing on empirical risk minimization, or…
We show how to generate random derangements efficiently by two different techniques: random restricted transpositions and sequential importance sampling. The algorithm employing restricted transpositions can also be used to generate random…
Random geometric graphs defined on Euclidean subspaces, also called Gilbert graphs, are widely used to model spatially embedded networks across various domains. In such graphs, nodes are located at random in Euclidean space, and any two…
We present large deviations estimates in the supremum norm for a system of independent random walks superposed with a birth-and-death dynamics evolving on the discrete torus with $N$ sites. The scaling limit considered is the so-called…
Power-law distributions are typical macroscopic features occurring in almost all complex systems observable in nature. As a result, researchers in quantitative analyses must often generate random synthetic variates obeying power-law…
The large-deviation method allows to characterize an ergodic counting process in terms of a thermodynamic frame where a free energy function determines the asymptotic non-stationary statistical properties of its fluctuations. Here, we study…
We prove a large deviation principle for a greedy exploration process on an Erd\"os-R\'enyi (ER) graph when the number of nodes goes to infinity. To prove our main result, we use the general strategy to study large deviations of processes…
The Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm is a very powerful and versatile method to estimate rare events probabilities. It is an iterative procedure on an interacting particle system, where at each step, the $k$ less well-adapted…
State-of-the-art methods for rare event simulation of non-Markovian models face practical or theoretical limits if observing the event of interest requires prior knowledge or information on the timed behavior of the system. In this paper,…
The problem of guessing a random string is revisited. A close relation between guessing and compression is first established. Then it is shown that if the sequence of distributions of the information spectrum satisfies the large deviation…
Randomized experiments is a key part of product development in the tech industry. It is often necessary to run programs of exclusive experiments, i.e., experiments that cannot be run on the same units during the same time. These programs…
We compute the joint large deviation rate functional in the limit of large time for the current flowing through the edges of a finite graph on which a boundary-driven system of stochastic particles evolves with zero-range dynamics.This…
In this work we propose an adaptive multilevel version of subset simulation to estimate the probability of rare events for complex physical systems. Given a sequence of nested failure domains of increasing size, the rare event probability…